A (unfinished) Chiefs fan’s guide to the 2022 NFL Draft
The leadup to the NFL Draft is a constant deluge of information. Even for die-hard football fans, the amount of information required to form complete opinions can be overwhelming. And many people are too busy or just not willing to put in that level of dedication for a three-day event in April. So let me do all the work for you!
The Kansas City Chiefs have 12 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, including 2 picks in each of the first four rounds. Given how top-heavy this team has been in the past few seasons, this draft represents likely the best chance the Chiefs will have for, at the bare minimum, the next five years to add young, controllable talent. Hitting on these picks is exactly what the Chiefs need to continue contending with Patrick Mahomes and his (for now) record setting quarterback contract (which is still somehow a steal for the Chiefs).
In this piece, we will focus on the first four picks the Chiefs currently possess: 29, 30, 50, and 61. I won’t be able to cover every single possibility, and of course this is heavily influenced by my own biases. But hopefully, I can cover enough to give my Chiefs mutuals enough information to go into and come out of draft night better informed than the average fan.
First, a note on trading up.
It is no secret that Chiefs general manager Brett Veach loves to trade up. And for all his strengths as an executive, this is one area I would like to see him express some restraint. The Chiefs current advantage is their 8 picks in the top 136, and to trade any of those would be eating into that advantage. Furthermore, the draft is such a crapshoot anyway that trading up for your guy puts so much more pressure on your evaluation that will end up being wrong anywhere from 30–60 percent of the time. Giving up additional assets represents adding additional risk for marginal improvement.
That said, there are times when a trade up would be beneficial. There are two scenarios:
1) A player is significantly falling past his projected area. If a top 20 player is available at 40, I would be all in on trading up from pick 50. I don’t believe trades to be worth it when deciding between two players of similar caliber, but when one player is a tier above another, then I would support such a move.
2) If the cost is minimal. The Chiefs don’t have any fifth or sixth round picks, but they are projected to select four times in the seventh round. Those picks offer such little return on investment, and considering that making all of those selections would require paying four guaranteed contracts, I have no issue moving these picks around, and I wouldn’t hate using a fourth. The issue I have is giving up multiple top picks to select one unproven player.
Draft Strategy
The Chiefs have three clear needs at premium positions and four selections in the first two rounds to address these needs. Said positions are defensive back, receiver, and pass rusher. I would be infuriated if the Chiefs ended the second round without addressing each of these needs at least once. While it is certainly possible the Chiefs will select an interior lineman or an offensive tackle, I will be focusing on these positions in this guide.
And with such significant needs, especially at pass rusher, I would love to see the Chiefs use their additional pick advantage and employ the double-up strategy. Taking, for example, two defensive linemen, both increases the floor and the ceiling of the picks. Two players at the same position decreases the chance of getting improvement, and if both players pan out, the position could change from a need to a strength overnight.
Now, I would certainly draft two pass rushers in the first two rounds, but if the Chiefs choose to wait until the third or the fourth to double-up, that would be no issue for me as long as the value is right at the pick.
Besides trading up, there is one other scenario that I would consider to be a nightmare: reaching on average athletes. We saw how disastrous the Breeland Speaks pick was in 2018, and that disaster was compounded by trading up for him. If a player has the production to be considered in the range of whatever pick the Chiefs are selecting, then sure, I would prefer a top-tier athlete but wouldn’t hate an average one (see: Nick Bolton in 2021, a pick I wrongly hated at the time because in my head I thought of our first pick of the draft, which was already in the late second, to be a first round pick).
So, let’s get into the player profiles. For first round prospects, I will separate these prospects into three categories: day dreams (players who would have to experience a significant fall to be available), ideals, and reaches (players who likely won’t be available at the Chiefs next pick). For the second round, I will simply discuss each of the players who might be the Chiefs’ selection. At the end, I will present what-I-would-do selections.
First Round
Since the Chiefs will pick back-to-back, there is no chance a player will be available at their first pick and not their second one unless the Chiefs trade around or select that player at 29.
Wide Receivers — Day Dreams
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
RAS: 8.67
Olave is, plain and simple, a fantastic route runner. His quick-twitch athleticism allows him to consistently shake cornerbacks. Sometimes, he is so open on tape that one would assume the cornerbacks just weren’t good enough rather than Olave being that good. At under 190 pounds, there is always the chance that he struggles against professional cornerbacks in press coverage, but he has such good agility and technique that I believe his release will be good enough for the NFL.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
RAS: N/A
If you want to replace Tyreek Hill, then as plainly as possible, Williams represents the best chance for the Chiefs to do so. He did not test due to an ACL injury that, if he somehow ends up in the Chiefs range, would be the reason for his fall. If he had tested, scouts would have been blown away by a 4.2 something 40 time. And Williams showed, especially against Georgia in the SEC title game, that he is much more than a deep ball threat. He can win over the middle and make contested catches like significantly larger receiver.
Ideals
George Pickens, WR, Georgia
RAS: 9.36
A player of George Pickens caliber would not normally be available for the Chiefs, but he missed most of last season due to an ACL injury. He has all the athletic traits that one would want in an X receiver — height, weight, speed. Due to no agility testing, some assume him to be a stiff, deep threat only receiver, but on tape, Pickens shows very solid change of direction ability that should translate into above average to good route running. Lastly, Pickens is an incredibly willing run blocker, and while his technique could be improved, his willingness and strength would be incredible assets in Andy Reid’s screen and jet sweep schemes.
(He has also been suspended for fighting and once squirted a water bottle on an opponent lying on the ground. Oops.)
Reaches
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
RAS: 6.31
Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
RAS: 7.56
These two players are very similar, so I will address them together. They are both excellent route runners, and both could end up being slot-limited players due to an inability to beat press coverage. And unlike Olave, who has a similar skill profile, both are solid but not elite athletes. I would be *fine* with either of them in the first round, but not excited. If I had to choose, I would prefer Dotson, because Moore got completely shut down against a fringe draftable cornerback when he played Michigan.
EDGE Rushers — Day Dreams
George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
RAS: 9.2
Karlaftis is an incredibly powerful defensive end who can win with strength and explosiveness at the next level to be a productive pass rusher as well as an effective edge-setter in the run game. He does have a perceived “low ceiling” due to some lower-body stiffness, which could lead to a draft-day fall. But he’s almost guaranteed to be a productive NFL player, and due to the nature of the Chiefs roster (aka Patrick Mahomes), the Chiefs don’t need to shoot for the moon on defensive players.
Ideals
Boye Mafe, EDGE, Minnesota
RAS: 9.91
Boye Mafe was a mid-round prospect with an intriguing athletic profile but mediocre production and tape. Then came the Senior Bowl, where he absolutely obliterated everything resembling an offensive tackle in sight. While nearly 24 years old, his dominance at the Senior Bowl combined with some eye-popping athletic numbers (like a 99th percentile 10-yard split, a time highly correlated to explosiveness). The middling college tape does warrant some concern, but Senior Bowl standouts have historically been more valuable as draft picks.
Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State
RAS: 9.14
There is one issue with both players: neither fit Steve Spagnuolo’s desired size for edge rushers. The Chiefs like long, heavy edge rushers who are at least 260 pounds and have at minimum 33” arms. Ebiketie is about 10 pounds lighter than the Chiefs usually acquire, and Mafe’s arm length of 32” is slightly below average. Now, these distinctions don’t make a huge difference to me (and maybe they would, if I was a more knowledgeable football person). If the Chiefs were to deviate from their typical prototype at edge, then I think they would rather sacrifice size than length, making Ebiketie slightly more plausible in my mind.
As far as distinguishing these players for me, its basically a tossup. Ebiketie has better production in college, while Mafe’s 10-yard split is slightly more elite and had an incredible Senior Bowl to make up for his average college tape. Mafe has a better athletic score, but Ebiketie has a more complete profile due to his participation in agility drills. At this point, I can’t make a distinction between these two, and so if the choice comes down to these two players, I have no issue with the Chiefs having a preference one way or another.
Reaches
None. There are a lot of players I would consider reaches in the first round, but all will likely be options for the second round, so if you want to know who the first round reaches are, just keep reading.
Defensive Backs — Day Dreams
Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
RAS: N/A
Booth is a cornerback prospect with a significantly longer list of strengths than weaknesses. He is long and physical in man coverage, he is comfortable and instinctive in zone coverage, and he is a willing participant in the run game. A core injury prevented Booth from participating in athletic testing, but the tape shows no issues there. If Brett Veach is finally willing to invest in cornerback, Booth is the perfect prospect to slide right into the void left by Charvarious Ward on day 1.
Ideals
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
RAS: 8.62
Elam is the prime physical specimen for the boundary cornerback position at 6’2” with sub-4.4 speed and 31-inch arms. And his tape is not too bad either — his physical nature allows him to stick with receivers in press man coverage. At the same time, he had several costly PI calls due to his playstyle, and while he seems willing to tackle unlike another recent athletic corner out of Florida, his technique needs vast improvement. He profiles closely to the recently departed Ward and, while he would certainly need more refinement, could also start on opening day on the boundary.
Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan
RAS: 9.05 (S), 9.45 (CB)
Every draft analyst seems incredibly eager for Daxton Hill to transition to safety. I, for one, cannot figure out why. As a slot cornerback in college, Hill was an incredible playmaker, lurking across the middle of the field and always making a play on the football. Sure, he absolutely has the ability to be an elite, rangy safety, but why take him out of the slot and move him to one of the lowest-value positions on defense? If the Chiefs feel comfortable with Rashad Fenton and L’Jarius Sneed on the outside, bringing in Hill to fill the slot would certainly improve the Chiefs’ coverage unit.
Jalen Pitre, DB, Baylor
RAS: 8.46 (S), 8.83 (CB)
Pitre is another player who dominated in the slot in college. He is a little less athletic than Hill, and his playstyle is a little different as well. Instead of ranging across the field, Pitre is much more effective in quick-changing movements. He would not be as effective as Hill in a role that Tyrann Mathieu played, where he essentially had free-range on every single play, but he would still be a very good slot cornerback.
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
RAS: 9.92
Cine is the first “true safety” on my “Big List”. His best skill is using his athleticism to play the downhill safety role, but like any good modern safety prospect, the appealing aspect of his game is his versatility (shocker). Like the other two safeties mentioned, he can play the slot, but he also has deep safety ability and could play the notorious Ben Niemann/Dan Sorenson role of dime linebacker. The athleticism Cine possesses makes him stand out among two other safety prospects with very similar skillsets.
Reaches
None. (Once again, this category is reserved for players who almost certainly will be gone by pick 50, and no one fits that billing here).
Second Round
Just as all second-round players would fit into the reach category for the first, so would all the players mentioned in the first round write ups to be daydream selections in the second. If they fall, take them, but don’t rely on it happening.
Due to the long list of prospects available after the first round, the chance that the Chiefs take someone I do not discuss will naturally be much higher.
Wide Receivers
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
RAS: 9.96
6’4” and 4.3 speed? Normally, that would be enough said. The athletic profile and Watson’s ability with the ball in his hands makes him one of the most tempting prospects in the draft. And while he shows flashes of good route running on tape, he was pretty much used solely as a deep receiver (when running proper routes), and was good but not dominant against FCS competition. Combined with the frequency of concentration drops, he profiles very similarly to another receiver the Chiefs just acquired in Marquez Valdez-Scantling.
Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
RAS: 9.82
“White DK Metcalf” might be a bit crass, but if the shoe fits… Pierce has the same blazing 40 time + size combination that DK had as well as the not so blazing agility drills. Another guy who was a one trick pony in college with go routes, but as we saw with Metcalf, if that trick is really good, then such a prospect can work out in the pros. I would just as a principle continue to shy away from guys who make a living on contested catches unless the value is really good.
John Metchie, WR, Alabama
RAS: N/A
Metchie was simply one of the most productive receivers in college before his injury, which has prevented him from testing. You can nitpick his size and project him to be slot-limited, you can nitpick his lack of top-top-end athleticism, but when you are consistently beating SEC defenses, NFL teams should notice. There’s some point where simply being a good football player outweighs all measurements of projectability, and that point for Metchie makes him an excellent day two value.
Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson
RAS: 2.64
Ross dominated as a freshman at Clemson, and then injuries really took a toll on him for the rest of his career, and his abysmal RAS score can be attributed to that as well. With injuries, if a guy shows he retains his athletic ability, that’s one thing, but a player like Ross who is clearly still being affected would be a massive red flag for me. Unless he experiences a Trey Smith-esque fall, Ross just doesn’t have anything that sets him apart from receivers in similar positions on the draft board.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama
RAS: 8.62
Tolbert is another size-speed guy with just slightly less of a top-end gear. But unlike the other prospects with similar profiles, he shows much more flashes of separation ability and route running on his tape. He’s not completely polished, and as a 23 year-old prospect he has a little less time to progress, but he presents one of the more complete player profiles of receivers projected in the day two range.
EDGE Rushers
Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
RAS: 8.6
Cameron Thomas, EDGE, San Diego State
RAS: 8.68
Josh Paschal, EDGE, Kentucky
RAS: 9.7
Kingsley Enagbare, EDGE, South Carolina
RAS: 6.21
Sam Williams, EDGE, Ole Miss
RAS: 9.72
Defensive Backs
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
RAS: 5.48
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
RAS: 9.69
Martin Emerson, CB, Mississippi State
RAS: 8.48
Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA
RAS: 9.7
Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State
RAS: 10
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
RAS: 9.14
Nick Cross, S, Maryland
RAS: 9.87
What I Would Do
Here are the players written I assume will be gone by each pick in the first two rounds:
1.29/30 — Olave, Williams, Karlaftis, Booth
2.50 — Olave, Williams, Karlaftis, Booth, Pickens, Dotson, Moore, Mafe, Ebiketie, Hill, Pitre, McCreary, Gordon
2.61 — Olave, Williams, Karlaftis, Booth, Pickens, Dotson, Moore, Mafe, Ebiketie, Hill, Pitre, McCreary, Gordon, Jackson, Thomas
2022 Chiefs Mock Draft: With first choice and first alternative:
1.29 — George Pickens, WR, Georgia OR Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
1.30 — Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State OR Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
2.50 — Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State OR Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
2.61 — Josh Paschal, EDGE, Kentucky OR Nick Cross, S, Maryland
Leaving the end of the second with (almost) any combination of these eight prospects would be a massive boon for the Chiefs ceiling and depth moving forward. But the draft is so unpredictable that the chance the Chiefs end up with none of them is just as high. So, inevitably, because post draft analysis, while it means absolutely nothing, means just slightly more than pre-draft analysis, so check back in with me on Sunday. .
The leadup to the NFL Draft is a constant deluge of information. Even for die-hard football fans, the amount of information required to form complete opinions can be overwhelming. And many people are too busy or just not willing to put in that level of dedication for a three-day event in April. So let me do all the work for you!
The Kansas City Chiefs have 12 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, including 2 picks in each of the first four rounds. Given how top-heavy this team has been in the past few seasons, this draft represents likely the best chance the Chiefs will have for, at the bare minimum, the next five years to add young, controllable talent. Hitting on these picks is exactly what the Chiefs need to continue contending with Patrick Mahomes and his (for now) record setting quarterback contract (which is still somehow a steal for the Chiefs).
In this piece, we will focus on the first four picks the Chiefs currently possess: 29, 30, 50, and 61. I won’t be able to cover every single possibility, and of course this is heavily influenced by my own biases. But hopefully, I can cover enough to give my Chiefs mutuals enough information to go into and come out of draft night better informed than the average fan.
First, a note on trading up.
It is no secret that Chiefs general manager Brett Veach loves to trade up. And for all his strengths as an executive, this is one area I would like to see him express some restraint. The Chiefs current advantage is their 8 picks in the top 136, and to trade any of those would be eating into that advantage. Furthermore, the draft is such a crapshoot anyway that trading up for your guy puts so much more pressure on your evaluation that will end up being wrong anywhere from 30–60 percent of the time. Giving up additional assets represents adding additional risk for marginal improvement.
That said, there are times when a trade up would be beneficial. There are two scenarios:
1) A player is significantly falling past his projected area. If a top 20 player is available at 40, I would be all in on trading up from pick 50. I don’t believe trades to be worth it when deciding between two players of similar caliber, but when one player is a tier above another, then I would support such a move.
2) If the cost is minimal. The Chiefs don’t have any fifth or sixth round picks, but they are projected to select four times in the seventh round. Those picks offer such little return on investment, and considering that making all of those selections would require paying four guaranteed contracts, I have no issue moving these picks around, and I wouldn’t hate using a fourth. The issue I have is giving up multiple top picks to select one unproven player.
Draft Strategy
The Chiefs have three clear needs at premium positions and four selections in the first two rounds to address these needs. Said positions are defensive back, receiver, and pass rusher. I would be infuriated if the Chiefs ended the second round without addressing each of these needs at least once. While it is certainly possible the Chiefs will select an interior lineman or an offensive tackle, I will be focusing on these positions in this guide.
And with such significant needs, especially at pass rusher, I would love to see the Chiefs use their additional pick advantage and employ the double-up strategy. Taking, for example, two defensive linemen, both increases the floor and the ceiling of the picks. Two players at the same position decreases the chance of getting improvement, and if both players pan out, the position could change from a need to a strength overnight.
Now, I would certainly draft two pass rushers in the first two rounds, but if the Chiefs choose to wait until the third or the fourth to double-up, that would be no issue for me as long as the value is right at the pick.
Besides trading up, there is one other scenario that I would consider to be a nightmare: reaching on average athletes. We saw how disastrous the Breeland Speaks pick was in 2018, and that disaster was compounded by trading up for him. If a player has the production to be considered in the range of whatever pick the Chiefs are selecting, then sure, I would prefer a top-tier athlete but wouldn’t hate an average one (see: Nick Bolton in 2021, a pick I wrongly hated at the time because in my head I thought of our first pick of the draft, which was already in the late second, to be a first round pick).
So, let’s get into the player profiles. For first round prospects, I will separate these prospects into three categories: day dreams (players who would have to experience a significant fall to be available), ideals, and reaches (players who likely won’t be available at the Chiefs next pick). For the second round, I will simply discuss each of the players who might be the Chiefs’ selection. At the end, I will present what-I-would-do selections.
First Round
Since the Chiefs will pick back-to-back, there is no chance a player will be available at their first pick and not their second one unless the Chiefs trade around or select that player at 29.
Wide Receivers — Day Dreams
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
RAS: 8.67
Olave is, plain and simple, a fantastic route runner. His quick-twitch athleticism allows him to consistently shake cornerbacks. Sometimes, he is so open on tape that one would assume the cornerbacks just weren’t good enough rather than Olave being that good. At under 190 pounds, there is always the chance that he struggles against professional cornerbacks in press coverage, but he has such good agility and technique that I believe his release will be good enough for the NFL.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
RAS: N/A
If you want to replace Tyreek Hill, then as plainly as possible, Williams represents the best chance for the Chiefs to do so. He did not test due to an ACL injury that, if he somehow ends up in the Chiefs range, would be the reason for his fall. If he had tested, scouts would have been blown away by a 4.2 something 40 time. And Williams showed, especially against Georgia in the SEC title game, that he is much more than a deep ball threat. He can win over the middle and make contested catches like significantly larger receiver.
Ideals
George Pickens, WR, Georgia
RAS: 9.36
A player of George Pickens caliber would not normally be available for the Chiefs, but he missed most of last season due to an ACL injury. He has all the athletic traits that one would want in an X receiver — height, weight, speed. Due to no agility testing, some assume him to be a stiff, deep threat only receiver, but on tape, Pickens shows very solid change of direction ability that should translate into above average to good route running. Lastly, Pickens is an incredibly willing run blocker, and while his technique could be improved, his willingness and strength would be incredible assets in Andy Reid’s screen and jet sweep schemes.
(He has also been suspended for fighting and once squirted a water bottle on an opponent lying on the ground. Oops.)
Reaches
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
RAS: 6.31
Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
RAS: 7.56
These two players are very similar, so I will address them together. They are both excellent route runners, and both could end up being slot-limited players due to an inability to beat press coverage. And unlike Olave, who has a similar skill profile, both are solid but not elite athletes. I would be *fine* with either of them in the first round, but not excited. If I had to choose, I would prefer Dotson, because Moore got completely shut down against a fringe draftable cornerback when he played Michigan.
EDGE Rushers — Day Dreams
George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
RAS: 9.2
Karlaftis is an incredibly powerful defensive end who can win with strength and explosiveness at the next level to be a productive pass rusher as well as an effective edge-setter in the run game. He does have a perceived “low ceiling” due to some lower-body stiffness, which could lead to a draft-day fall. But he’s almost guaranteed to be a productive NFL player, and due to the nature of the Chiefs roster (aka Patrick Mahomes), the Chiefs don’t need to shoot for the moon on defensive players.
Ideals
Boye Mafe, EDGE, Minnesota
RAS: 9.91
Boye Mafe was a mid-round prospect with an intriguing athletic profile but mediocre production and tape. Then came the Senior Bowl, where he absolutely obliterated everything resembling an offensive tackle in sight. While nearly 24 years old, his dominance at the Senior Bowl combined with some eye-popping athletic numbers (like a 99th percentile 10-yard split, a time highly correlated to explosiveness). The middling college tape does warrant some concern, but Senior Bowl standouts have historically been more valuable as draft picks.
Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State
RAS: 9.14
There is one issue with both players: neither fit Steve Spagnuolo’s desired size for edge rushers. The Chiefs like long, heavy edge rushers who are at least 260 pounds and have at minimum 33” arms. Ebiketie is about 10 pounds lighter than the Chiefs usually acquire, and Mafe’s arm length of 32” is slightly below average. Now, these distinctions don’t make a huge difference to me (and maybe they would, if I was a more knowledgeable football person). If the Chiefs were to deviate from their typical prototype at edge, then I think they would rather sacrifice size than length, making Ebiketie slightly more plausible in my mind.
As far as distinguishing these players for me, its basically a tossup. Ebiketie has better production in college, while Mafe’s 10-yard split is slightly more elite and had an incredible Senior Bowl to make up for his average college tape. Mafe has a better athletic score, but Ebiketie has a more complete profile due to his participation in agility drills. At this point, I can’t make a distinction between these two, and so if the choice comes down to these two players, I have no issue with the Chiefs having a preference one way or another.
Reaches
None. There are a lot of players I would consider reaches in the first round, but all will likely be options for the second round, so if you want to know who the first round reaches are, just keep reading.
Defensive Backs — Day Dreams
Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
RAS: N/A
Booth is a cornerback prospect with a significantly longer list of strengths than weaknesses. He is long and physical in man coverage, he is comfortable and instinctive in zone coverage, and he is a willing participant in the run game. A core injury prevented Booth from participating in athletic testing, but the tape shows no issues there. If Brett Veach is finally willing to invest in cornerback, Booth is the perfect prospect to slide right into the void left by Charvarious Ward on day 1.
Ideals
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
RAS: 8.62
Elam is the prime physical specimen for the boundary cornerback position at 6’2” with sub-4.4 speed and 31-inch arms. And his tape is not too bad either — his physical nature allows him to stick with receivers in press man coverage. At the same time, he had several costly PI calls due to his playstyle, and while he seems willing to tackle unlike another recent athletic corner out of Florida, his technique needs vast improvement. He profiles closely to the recently departed Ward and, while he would certainly need more refinement, could also start on opening day on the boundary.
Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan
RAS: 9.05 (S), 9.45 (CB)
Every draft analyst seems incredibly eager for Daxton Hill to transition to safety. I, for one, cannot figure out why. As a slot cornerback in college, Hill was an incredible playmaker, lurking across the middle of the field and always making a play on the football. Sure, he absolutely has the ability to be an elite, rangy safety, but why take him out of the slot and move him to one of the lowest-value positions on defense? If the Chiefs feel comfortable with Rashad Fenton and L’Jarius Sneed on the outside, bringing in Hill to fill the slot would certainly improve the Chiefs’ coverage unit.
Jalen Pitre, DB, Baylor
RAS: 8.46 (S), 8.83 (CB)
Pitre is another player who dominated in the slot in college. He is a little less athletic than Hill, and his playstyle is a little different as well. Instead of ranging across the field, Pitre is much more effective in quick-changing movements. He would not be as effective as Hill in a role that Tyrann Mathieu played, where he essentially had free-range on every single play, but he would still be a very good slot cornerback.
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
RAS: 9.92
Cine is the first “true safety” on my “Big List”. His best skill is using his athleticism to play the downhill safety role, but like any good modern safety prospect, the appealing aspect of his game is his versatility (shocker). Like the other two safeties mentioned, he can play the slot, but he also has deep safety ability and could play the notorious Ben Niemann/Dan Sorenson role of dime linebacker. The athleticism Cine possesses makes him stand out among two other safety prospects with very similar skillsets.
Reaches
None. (Once again, this category is reserved for players who almost certainly will be gone by pick 50, and no one fits that billing here).
Second Round
Just as all second-round players would fit into the reach category for the first, so would all the players mentioned in the first round write ups to be daydream selections in the second. If they fall, take them, but don’t rely on it happening.
Due to the long list of prospects available after the first round, the chance that the Chiefs take someone I do not discuss will naturally be much higher.
Wide Receivers
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
RAS: 9.96
6’4” and 4.3 speed? Normally, that would be enough said. The athletic profile and Watson’s ability with the ball in his hands makes him one of the most tempting prospects in the draft. And while he shows flashes of good route running on tape, he was pretty much used solely as a deep receiver (when running proper routes), and was good but not dominant against FCS competition. Combined with the frequency of concentration drops, he profiles very similarly to another receiver the Chiefs just acquired in Marquez Valdez-Scantling.
Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
RAS: 9.82
“White DK Metcalf” might be a bit crass, but if the shoe fits… Pierce has the same blazing 40 time + size combination that DK had as well as the not so blazing agility drills. Another guy who was a one trick pony in college with go routes, but as we saw with Metcalf, if that trick is really good, then such a prospect can work out in the pros. I would just as a principle continue to shy away from guys who make a living on contested catches unless the value is really good.
John Metchie, WR, Alabama
RAS: N/A
Metchie was simply one of the most productive receivers in college before his injury, which has prevented him from testing. You can nitpick his size and project him to be slot-limited, you can nitpick his lack of top-top-end athleticism, but when you are consistently beating SEC defenses, NFL teams should notice. There’s some point where simply being a good football player outweighs all measurements of projectability, and that point for Metchie makes him an excellent day two value.
Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson
RAS: 2.64
Ross dominated as a freshman at Clemson, and then injuries really took a toll on him for the rest of his career, and his abysmal RAS score can be attributed to that as well. With injuries, if a guy shows he retains his athletic ability, that’s one thing, but a player like Ross who is clearly still being affected would be a massive red flag for me. Unless he experiences a Trey Smith-esque fall, Ross just doesn’t have anything that sets him apart from receivers in similar positions on the draft board.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama
RAS: 8.62
Tolbert is another size-speed guy with just slightly less of a top-end gear. But unlike the other prospects with similar profiles, he shows much more flashes of separation ability and route running on his tape. He’s not completely polished, and as a 23 year-old prospect he has a little less time to progress, but he presents one of the more complete player profiles of receivers projected in the day two range.
EDGE Rushers
Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
RAS: 8.6
Cameron Thomas, EDGE, San Diego State
RAS: 8.68
Josh Paschal, EDGE, Kentucky
RAS: 9.7
Kingsley Enagbare, EDGE, South Carolina
RAS: 6.21
Sam Williams, EDGE, Ole Miss
RAS: 9.72
Defensive Backs
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
RAS: 5.48
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
RAS: 9.69
Martin Emerson, CB, Mississippi State
RAS: 8.48
Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA
RAS: 9.7
Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State
RAS: 10
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
RAS: 9.14
Nick Cross, S, Maryland
RAS: 9.87
What I Would Do
Here are the players written I assume will be gone by each pick in the first two rounds:
1.29/30 — Olave, Williams, Karlaftis, Booth
2.50 — Olave, Williams, Karlaftis, Booth, Pickens, Dotson, Moore, Mafe, Ebiketie, Hill, Pitre, McCreary, Gordon
2.61 — Olave, Williams, Karlaftis, Booth, Pickens, Dotson, Moore, Mafe, Ebiketie, Hill, Pitre, McCreary, Gordon, Jackson, Thomas
2022 Chiefs Mock Draft: With first choice and first alternative:
1.29 — George Pickens, WR, Georgia OR Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
1.30 — Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State OR Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
2.50 — Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State OR Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
2.61 — Josh Paschal, EDGE, Kentucky OR Nick Cross, S, Maryland
Leaving the end of the second with (almost) any combination of these eight prospects would be a massive boon for the Chiefs ceiling and depth moving forward. But the draft is so unpredictable that the chance the Chiefs end up with none of them is just as high. So, inevitably, because post draft analysis, while it means absolutely nothing, means just slightly more than pre-draft analysis, so check back in with me on Sunday. .
