2022 NFL Mock Draft v 1.0

All of my classes have decided to kill me the week after spring break. That means I can spend my free time before break ignoring my impending doom and writing a (kind of) pre-combine mock. This is almost entirely what I would do (which is the superior form of mock draft), but still considering team schemes and philosophies.

1 — Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

My influence on NFL narratives cannot be understated. Evan Neal gained incredible steam just weeks after I said he should be the number one overall pick. It has become a cliché at this point that Jacksonville needs to do everything possible to guarantee Trevor Lawrence’s progression, but it absolutely holds true. My new favorite NFL personality Mike McDaniel said that if he could make every offensive lineman 6’8”, 400 pounds, he would. Neal is about 30 pounds light of the ideal, but he uses his incredible frame to lock down opposing defensive linemen. One narrative around Neal is that he is already close to his ceiling as a prospect because he already has well-developed hand movement and technique. But this year, we are going to eliminate the “low ceiling” draft narrative. It’s such a logical fallacy to prefer a less-developed player simply because they have that extra room to grow. Evan Neal has 90th percentile athleticism and already has developed NFL caliber skill. That is exactly the player you want to take first overall to ensure the success of your young quarterback.

2 — Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

The conversation surrounding the top edge rusher in this year’s draft class is so fascinating to me. Neither fit into typical draft stereotypes (athletic, raw vs less athletic, more refined). Both top edge rushers are elite athletes and technically skilled. At this point, the only thing that separates these two prospects are some “character issues” surrounding Kayvon Thibodeaux, which I think are overblown anyway. Instead of trying to poke minor holes into either prospect’s game, its time to simply admit two teams are going to be incredibly grateful that there are two elite pass rusher prospects in this year’s class. At this point, as Detroit’s hypothetical GM, the real reason I give Hutchinson the edge here is that he’s the local kid — the type of energy and that connection would draft in the fanbase would bring much-needed enthusiasm into a franchise that has desperately missed an identity since Calvin Johnson’s retirement. That’s not a football reason and *probably* doesn’t translate to wins on the field, and that’s okay! At the end of the day, these two prospects are so close that giving extra enjoyment to the fans is really all that can differentiate them.\

3 — Houston Texans: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

Houston desperately needs an influx of talent, regardless of the position. Thankfully, they have the opportunity to select an elite talent at a highly valued position. There isn’t much more to be said about Thibodeaux that hasn’t been already — the biggest knock on his game is that sometimes he tries to win with his super awesome athleticism instead of relying on technique. But getting a player with the profile of a number one overall pick at three is a no-brainer for Houston, and any questions about injuries and “character issues” (again, I don’t really take much stock in these) shouldn’t change any minds.

4 — New York Jets: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

Like with Jacksonville, the entire trajectory of the Jets for the next half-decade depends on either making sure something works at the quarterback position. I think the Jets would be quicker to move on from Wilson than the Jags would be from Lawrence due to the latter’s greater past pedigree, but regardless, bringing arguably the best pass-blocking tackle in the class is a good step forward. There are questions about Mekhi Becton’s future in New York, but regardless of how that plays out, Cross should be the pick here. Either he replaces Becton at an incredibly important position or have the potential to form one of the top tackle tandems in the league.

5 — New York Giants: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State

I’m reaching broken record status, but with such talent at the tackle position, this year’s class gives teams the opportunity to build a solid foundation around either their current quarterback or a future rookie. I might be lower on Ekwonu than some consensus, but that in no way means I am low on him. While I value current ability a little more, there is no doubt that if Ekwonu gets quality coaching and develops well that his athletic profile could produce one of the best tackles in the league. And while right tackle may be rich to some for the fifth overall pick, the Giants extra first from Chicago allows them the flexibility to grab the last of the top tackles and then add on whatever talent falls to them at seven (and, I am of the opinion that the perceived lower value of right tackles than left is a lot less than the general consensus).

6 — Carolina Panthers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

Too often I have seen some of the top quarterbacks in a given draft class be guys that have been previously labeled “low ceiling” to take much stock into the label. Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Mac Jones, and even Joe Burrow to a certain extent were considered limited by physical upside and have become top quarterbacks (yes, I know Burrow was the first overall pick; the general consensus was that if he were to bust, it would be because of his lack of athletic traits, which I consider to fit in the low ceiling category; some may disagree, but at this point its semantics). What sets Pickett out to me is his processing: on the film it is quite apparent that he goes through reads faster and more effectively than his peers in this years’ class. And processing NFL defenses is one of those skills that often makes or breaks a quarterback prospect, and its an incredibly challenging skill to develop from scratch. Pickett coming into the league with such ability makes him my top quarterback. There are some concerns about his tendency to bail from clean pockets, but we’ve seen quarterbacks succeed regardless of that tendency, and some might argue its even a positive (at times) that his movement breaks down defensive coverages. In short, I am a huge believer in Kenny Pickett, and Carolina passing on two quarterback prospects in a row in favor of Sam Darnold would be an incredible mistake.

7 — New York Giants (from CHI): George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

Adding top ten line talents on both sides of the football would set up the Giants incredibly well for future success regardless of how the quarterback position plays out. The Super Bowl was a prime example of why both the offensive and defensive line matter, and in this scenario, New York doesn’t have to choose which side to invest in. I’ve seen Karlaftis fall in some mocks, and I can’t quite figure out why. He’s incredibly athletic and plays with power in a way that fits how the edge position has evolved in the NFL. Knocking him because he doesn’t have 99th percentile speed or length is so strange to me, because those traits aren’t requisite for success at the position. His technique could certainly use refinement, but for what prospect is that not true?

TRADE: Atlanta sends 1.8 to Washington for 1.11 and 3.9

With a plethora of needs and a plethora of top prospects falling, Atlanta can add a day 2 pick and still get a top talent, while Washington comes up to get in front of Denver.

8 — Washington Commanders (from ATL) — Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

Here is where I break with my current trends and value Ridder more so because of his athletic traits and less so because of his refinement. There is no question that Ridder’s accuracy needs improvement. But, we’ve seen that accuracy issues are much easier to fix than processing ones, because of the incredible strides that the biomechanics industry has undergone in the past years. And if Ridder can iron out these issues, the flashes of brilliance are on display without some of the question marks that other talented but raw quarterbacks have in this year’s class. Now, a club baseball teammate of mine (who has dropped previous gems such as he would rather have Mac Jones than Mahomes for the rest of their careers and that the DaBaby verse is the best part of Levitating) that Ridder can be a dick. So, there are potential character issues, if you believe the word of my club baseball teammate’s old friend who attended Cincinnati for half a semester before dropping out. In all seriousness, Ridder is my strong QB2 because we’ve seen much more evidence that his type of issues can be fixed.

9 — Denver Broncos — Matt Corral, QB, Mississippi

Even though Washington vaulted them to get their guy, Denver still goes with a quarterback. Unlike Ridder, who has the talent as well as a distinct (fixable) issue, Corral is much more of a blank slate. He ran an RPO-heavy offense at Ole Miss where he was one read and then run much of the time. So, we don’t have much of an idea how well he can read defenses. However, the physical traits are too enticing in this case. His combination of arm strength and running ability might only be matched by one other quarterback in this class, and with Denver’s well-constructed roster outside of the quarterback position, this team presents a much better opportunity for a rookie to come in and find success immediately. It would certainly be disheartening to see another division rival get a young quarterback with really high potential.

10 — New York Jets (from SEA) — Derek Stingley Jr, CB, Louisiana State

I’ve seen a lot of Jets fans get quite angry about Derek Stingley in mock drafts, which is a little odd to me. If I were a fan, I would be thrilled with him at four and absolutely through the roof at ten. I know the “regression” from his freshman year is a little concerning. However, PFF recently did a study that showed that players who “peak” early in college tend to re-find that early success in their NFL careers, and Stingley’s incredible freshman season means the sky is the limit. A recent example is Creed Humphrey, who was best as a freshman in college, and then came into the NFL as arguably the best center in the league as a rookie. Adding a receiver is also tempting, but in this case, the chance to add a player who was the best cornerback in college at 18 years old is too good, especially given the lack of a definite number one receiver in this year’s class.

11 — Atlanta Falcons (from WAS) — Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

The trade down could not have worked out better for Atlanta, as a top three talent just falls into their laps. As much as I want to take somebody who could help Matt Ryan push for a division title in the now quarterback-weak NFC South, this team has so many holes on the roster that any influx of talent is desperately needed. It really sucks for Hamilton that there are a lot of top prospects at key positions like edge and tackle, because he certainly has the talent to be a top three pick. And I don’t take much stock in the perceived lack of value of the safety position. The Falcons add a top talent and an extra third to bolster their last push for the playoffs with Matt Ryan.

12 — Minnesota Vikings — Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Here is one of the easiest picks in my mock. Minnesota has one of the worst cornerback groups in the league, and Ahmad Gardner would be CB1 in a lot of previous picks. As is the case with many top prospects, attempts to find flaws in his game are essentially nitpicking. He’s not the most twitched-up athlete, but his length more than makes up for that. He locked down an entire side of the field every time he played in college, and the Vikings should sprint this draft card up to the podium.

13 — Cleveland Browns — Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

We move from one of the easiest picks to one of the most cliché picks in the draft. Cleveland desperately needs weapons anywhere in the passing game after the loss of Odell Beckham and the seemingly impending separation from Jarvis Landry. Wilson doesn’t get as much buzz as a receiver prospect because he doesn’t have incredible size like Drake London or speed like Jameson Williams. But it seems like rookie receivers who can run routes well are most primed for early NFL success, and that is certainly Wilson’s strong suit.

14 — Baltimore Ravens — Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

I’m not going to lie — I fully stole this idea from another mock. But I absolutely love the idea of Baltimore adding a stud center like Linderbaum to bolster their run game. Watching Linderbaum’s head while he’s blocking is such a treat: he always knows when to help, when to pick up a different rusher, and when to pass off to the second level. And to combine that processing with the incredible athletic profile is just such an enticing piece for Baltimore’s offense. Now, some might say, Creed Humphrey was arguably the best center in the league and he was only worth 0.5 PFF WAR. But 0.5 WAR over a 17 game NFL schedule is (very roughly) like a 5 WAR baseball player over a 162 game schedule. Even if Linderbaum only has half the impact as a rookie (and I’d bet against that), he’d still be providing value even at a “less valuable” position like center.

15 — Philadelphia Eagles (from MIA) — David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan

With three first round picks, the Eagles have a chance to remake the identity of their team. Normally, I endorse going all-in on a young quarterback. But this may be one case where the value actually aligns with building an elite defense and making sure the offense is good enough (ala San Francisco). In my write up for 1.1 I kind of made it seem like I value developed skill really highly, but that is really only when the athletic profiles are more or less equal. Otherwise, take the best athlete and make things work from there. Ojabo has only been playing football for a few years, but he still managed to put up 11 sacks in the BIG 12 (edit: oops!)

16 — Philadelphia Eagles (from IND) –Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Why debate the value of pass rush versus secondary when you can simply have both? In a pretty deep cornerback class, McDuffie separates himself for me with the best combination of athleticism and tape of the guys remaining. The trade off for that combination is that he doesn’t have optimal length, but haggling over the one inch between 5’11” and 6’ is really unnecessary to me. Watching his tape is a lot of fun, because he not only sticks with receivers in coverage, but he’s also great at forcing incompletions and he’s an excellent tackler. Here’s another example of my athleticism/skill take — when the athletic profiles are mostly equal, take the guy who shows the ability to play in the league right away.

17 — Los Angeles Chargers — Drake London, WR, USC

The Chargers certainly *could* improve their defense in an effort to become a more balanced team. But doesn’t adding a demigod receiver to go along with their demigod quarterback sound way more fun? Drake London has a lot of questions coming out about his separation ability (his 36% contested adjusted catch percentage (screen targets removed) is certainly scary, as that lines up with guys like Denzel Mims, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Jalen Reagor). But I have a solution — use him like Travis Kelce as a big-body slot receiver. Now, Keenan Allen already gets 45% of the slot snaps, but London certainly can play on the outside as well, and moving these guys all across the line of scrimmage would give opposing defensive coordinators headaches.

18 — New Orleans Saints — Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

I hope I’ve made it clear how I value quarterback prospects — I’d rather have accuracy issues than decision making issues. And it would be an understatement to say that Malik Willis’ main issues are decision making. HOWEVER. In the NFL, you kind of need a demigod at quarterback to reliably win. And Willis is the only quarterback in the class with elite physical tools. I certainly don’t think Willis has the highest chance to be a starting quarterback, or even franchise quarterback, of prospects in this class. But if you take the approach that you need to hit on a top five quarterback and anything else is a failure, even though the chance you get no value out of the pick long term, I can’t hate on the approach.

19 — Philadelphia Eagles — Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

I’m generally against spending premium assets on off-ball linebackers. But Devin Lloyd is a top-ten prospect, and if he falls this far, I’d be thrilled for Philadelphia. Jamin Davis was taken with the same pick a year ago, and Lloyd is twice the prospect that Davis was. They are similar players athletically, but Lloyd comes in with much better tape and especially well-developed coverage skills, while Davis’ coverage skills were essentially a blank slate that needed to be built from the ground up. Adding a top prospect at every level of the defense is too tempting for Philadelphia to pass up.

20 — Pittsburgh Steelers — Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

It’s no secret that the quarterback *prospects* are a huge step down from the 2021 to 2022 classes. But it wouldn’t surprise me if there were multiple long-term starters from this year’s class. I still think the player himself is the most important in terms of outcome, but team situation is also incredibly important (I’d consider it a 60–40 split at this point). If you have confidence in your coaching staff, which I certainly would for Pittsburgh, you have a chance to develop a franchise quarterback from a seemingly lesser prospect. Sam Howell certainly has an NFL arm, and he regressed after losing half his line and receiver options. While his pocket presence is legitimately bad, why not see if putting him in an excellent position could turn Howell into a hidden gem? (albeit the line in Pittsburgh is certainly a weakness, which might not be the best combination).

21 — New England Patriots — Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Mac Jones is a good quarterback. But to have a chance at a Super Bowl, he needs to be elevated by top-tier offensive talent. And before his ACL injury in the National Championship, Jameson Williams was elevating the Alabama offense to another level. He’s twice of a receiver as the other sub 4.35 guys who have come out of the draft recently (see: Henry Ruggs, Rondale Moore), and so he shouldn’t be thought of simply as a deep threat. Considering the advancements in medical technology, I’d have no concerns about the injury, and while it might be a toss up whether he can play week one, the chance to grab an elite playmaker for a quarterback who desperately needs one is too good to pass up for maybe two weeks of availability.

22 — Las Vegas Raiders — Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia

Maxx Crosby had a breakout season for Vegas, and the Raiders should try to turn their defensive front into an absolute unit by adding an interior rusher to compliment him. Wyatt is by no means Aaron Donald, but a lot of people are projecting him to have a similar athletic profile. And Wyatt stood out on an incredibly talented Georgia line as one of the most productive pass rushers. Wyatt is a bit older of a prospect, but none of the interior linemen taken in this similar range in recent have had the same combination of athleticism and production.

23 — Arizona Cardinals: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Watching Chris Olave’s film can deceive the viewer — not only is he always wide open, but he is *so* wide open that the brain’s first response is that the opposing cornerbacks must be barbecue chicken. But Olave’s separation ability is second to none in this year’s class, and he is probably my favorite wide receiver overall. Route running proficiency often gets overlooked for receiver prospects, but it is often the skill that best translates to NFL success. Adding a player with elite separation ability next to Deandre Hopkins would give Kyler Murray the best chance possible to prove that he deserves to be firmly entrenched as a top-ten quarterback.

24 — Dallas Cowboys: Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia

The PFF guys had a really interesting conversation on Twitter the other day that elite run defense from interior linemen is really undervalued. So even if Jordan Davis is just a two-down guy, the evidence shows that player might actually still be worth a first-round pick. And Davis’ freakish athletic profile still gives him the chance to develop as a pass rusher. So, for a Dallas team that just needs extra star player to push themselves over the hump in the NFC, adding a guy who can provide an elite skill right away with the additional bonus potential to add another element to his game is too perfect of a fit to pass up.

25 — Buffalo Bills: Andrew Booth Jr, CB, Clemson

It’s a sobering thought to know that the Bills had Josh Allen at his very best and the best defense in the league and it still wasn’t enough to win a Super Bowl. The Bills don’t have very many holes on the roster, but cornerback could certainly be a need, and adding a guy in Andrew Booth who some consider to be a top twenty prospect is the perfect situation here. Booth can be a little over-aggressive at times, leading to him getting burnt, but that’s really the only reason I have him falling outside of my top twenty. Otherwise, he has all of the necessary athleticism, coverage skills, and length to be an outstanding NFL cornerback.

26 — Tennessee Titans: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

As much as I love the Ryan Tannehill career arc, the Titans are in purgatory with him at quarterback and might never be able to make a Super Bowl with him. I would certainly not hate for Tennessee to take a quarterback here and develop him for a year, but that would require one of the top guys to fall this far. Instead, they get a small-school tackle to help replace the desperately-missed Jack Conklin. With small school prospects, you often see really athletic guys who were just okay against lesser competition, but Penning combines the elite athletic profile with absolutely dominant tape. Some guys have already pushed him as far as their top ten, and while I’m not quite there yet with him, he’s an excellent value for the mid-twenties.

27 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

Tampa Bay is on the verge of losing all three starting cornerbacks within the next two years from a unit which, in my opinion, doesn’t get enough credit for their Super Bowl victory. Sure, Mahomes was running for his life, but he gave himself enough time to put stress on the coverage, which held up magnificently. Roger McCreary is really sticky in coverage, and even though John Metchie got his receptions, the matchup versus Alabama was really impressive, as he was contesting passes and covering against two of the top receivers in the country. McCreary doesn’t have the ideal length or size, but in the second tier of cornerbacks, I would be thrilled with his coverage ability any day of the week.

28 — Green Bay Packers: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

Treylon Burks is a controversial prospect — some see the athletic profile as a top-ten prospect, some see the lack of elite separation ability as a red flag. I personally love the comparison to AJ Brown, who I think when healthy is one of the more underrated receivers in the league. His physicality would provide an excellent complement to the elite route running of Davonte Adams and give Aaron Rodgers the best chance to pull out one more Super Bowl to end his career. You could easily make the argument that tackle would be better here, but any other position is in my mind indefensible for Green Bay to select here. Personally, I like the talent of Burks over any of the tackle prospects remaining.

29 — Miami Dolphins: Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota

Turns out the Mike McDaniel reference in the first overall pick write-up was foreshadowing! This pick might be more suited for the second round, but I’m struggling to figure out why Faalele is so low on some boards. He’s the 400-pound tackle McDaniel dreams of, and he only allowed one pressure in eight games to end the season at Minnesota. The issues with consistency can be easily attributed to the fact that he just started playing football. When you have a prospect that fits your hyperbole ideal physical specimen with room for great improvement, you go get your guy. If I had a gambling problem, I would bet an exorbitant amount of money that Miami ends up with Faalele at some point in this draft.

30 — Kansas City Chiefs: Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia

Before I get to the pick, let me walk you through my Chiefs draft philosophy. I think the pick can be between any of the three positions: defensive back, wide receiver, or edge rusher (or, if Jordan Davis somehow falls, he should be in the conversation too). Given how deep the class is at all three positions, I wouldn’t have any issues with the Chiefs taking whichever of the best prospects falls. I would have an issue with reaching for a prospect in the 40–50 range here at 30 given that its almost a guarantee that some top talent falls. If Chris Olave is on the board, take him without question. He’s my favorite receiver in this class and would fit the Chiefs needs so well. Otherwise, best player available at the three spots.

Now, some Chiefs fans might panic with this pick — the last time we took an oversized tweener edge player with our first pick, it was a spectacular failure. But here’s the difference between Travon Walker and Breeland Speaks — Walker is good at football. He’s an athletic monster who will probably shoot up draft boards and be long out of the range for Kansas City if he tests like Rashan Gary at the combine. He also produced fairly well in college, and although the pass rush technique can be improved, he disrupted the game from three different positions. The debate between coverage versus pass rush (coverage is more valuable, but pass rush is more consistent, says PFF) is still up in the air, so I would also be happy with a guy like Daxton Hill here, especially if Tyrann Mathieu leaves. In the absence of that information for this mock, I go with the guy who is ultimately the best value with an abundance of riches on the board here.

31 — Cincinnati Bengals: Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M

It’s no secret what Cincinnati is going to spend its assets on this offseason. If they could pull off a trade for Laremy Tunsil, I’d do that without much thought. Otherwise, Kenyon Green is being projected as a guard, but I think he can stick at right tackle in the NFL. If not, the interior was arguably the bigger issue for Cincinnati this season, so whichever spot the coaches feel best about him at, Green is a plug-and-play type of prospect. If they could add Terron Armstead or another top free agent, then I wouldn’t hate taking a different position than offensive line in round one, but for now, take the best player available at the biggest position group of need.

32 — Detroit Lions (from LAR): Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

I would certainly support Detroit taking a quarterback here, but in this case, all of the guys have already gone (I am currently out on Carson Strong — the medicals aren’t just a durability question, but his cartiladge issue legitimately affects him during games, as was seen by his struggles towards the end of the season). Instead, Detroit should simply cast the widest possible best player available net because this team can use help pretty much anywhere but offensive tackle. Daxton Hill is one of my favorite types of prospects — slot corner/safety hybrid, a prototype becoming increasingly more valuable as nickel defense becomes the base package and dime defense becomes the new nickel. The positional versatility combined with the freedom to roam the center of the field gives coverage guys a chance to make an even greater impact on the game. Given Detroit’s investment at corner but still having issues in pass coverage, a safety hybrid like Hill makes perfect sense here to finish the first round.