2022 MLB Mock Draft, because why not
I don’t normally get as into mocks for the MLB Draft as I do for its NFL counterpart just because the baseball draft does not follow the typical need-then-BPA approach. In the MLB Draft, teams are simply trying to maximize talent per dollar due to the unique bonus pool system that this draft employs. But I’m riding a somewhat high after my Henry Davis 1–1 agenda came to fruition (don’t pay attention to how the rest of the mock went), so I thought I’d bust out another top ten mock for the 2022 MLB draft.
Since I lack the insider information that most writers have access to, this mock is purely based on vibes and what I feel like. Anyone looking for super serious journalism is clearly in the wrong place.
1 — Baltimore Orioles: Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola College
The Orioles have famously under-slotted their top picks in the last two years with college bats, and all indications point towards them repeating that strategy this year. The issue is, there are five or six guys who you could easily convince yourself that Baltimore would fall in love with. So, in absence of real information, I am projecting Collier, my favorite prospect, to go 1–1. Why? Because he’s 17 years old and just finished his first season of college baseball at one of the premier community colleges in the country. Not since Bryce Harper have we seen a top high school prospect enroll early in CC and hit as well as he did. For being just 17 and having such advanced skills against college competition, Collier’s floor is that of a typical college hitter while his ceiling is that of a high school bat with years to develop his body and his game.
2 — Arizona Diamondbacks: Druw Jones, CF, Wesleyan (HS)
Just as the Orioles have shown a tendency to underslot their premium picks, so have the Diamondbacks shown their willingness to pay top slot money to high school hitters who have fallen after taking Jordan Lawlar, a potential first overall player, with the sixth pick last season. Everyone who follows the MLB Draft knows who Druw Jones is. He’s a fantastic hitter and his potential to be an elite defender at a premium position is all common knowledge. As an amateur analyst, I have little else to offer other than Druw Jones is awesome and he should not be overthought.
3 — Texas Rangers: Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater (HS)
In what is an insanely stacked MLB legacy class this year, the son of Matt Holliday is the second legacy to go in the top three here. Unlike some of his other high school hitters, Holliday does not have any insanely loud tools like Druw Jones’ athleticism and defense or Elijah Green’s raw power. What he does have is a really good approach at the plate for a high school hitter, and while his athleticism is not off the chart, it is certainly enough to give him the chance to stick at shortstop.
4 — Pittsburgh Pirates: Zach Neto, SS, Campbell
Like Baltimore, Pittsburgh has shown a desire to take low-cost college bats, having taken Nick Gonzales and Henry Davis in the past two first rounds (who both happen to be my favorite prospects from the 2020 and 2021 draft, respectively). This is a much higher reach than those two picks, but after just annihilating his competition at Campbell this spring, Neto has gotten serious top-ten buzz. If not Pittsburgh, don’t be surprised to hear his name called for Chicago, Minnesota, or Kansas City.
5 — Washington Nationals: Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
I expect the Nationals to target high-floor college bats to try and build around Juan Soto as quickly as possible to try and convince him to stay. Advanced hitters like Parada who can also catch often find themselves in the top 5, like Joey Bart and Henry Davis. Having an offensive-oriented catcher is a huge advantage in the MLB, and while there is a decent-sized chance he’ll have to move off catcher, having his bat along with Keibert Ruiz to mix and match gives the Nationals a bright future in the backstop.
6 — Miami Marlins: Elijah Green, IMG Academy (HS)
Green has been projected as one of the top prospects in this class for years, and some swing-and-miss issues have caused his stock to take a slight hit. However, he cut his strikeout rate to 20% (which is still high, but it was over 30% a year ago). And the rest of his tools offer possibly the highest ceiling in the draft. His raw power and athleticism that will likely make him a plus defender in center field are just too tempting to have fall any further. The Marlins took another top high schooler who slipped last season in Khalil Watson, and with so many guys to fill up so few top-five slots, I expect them to say thank you to the rest of the league and happily move on their way with whoever slips to pick six.
7 — Chicago Cubs: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
Lee is another high floor college shortstop who had an excellent season, just not as insane as Zach Neto. Like Neto, the likelihood of Lee remaining at shortstop is lower, but the contact skills are too advanced to pass up. He could be in the run for the first overall pick like pretty much every player mentioned so far.
8 — Minnesota Twins: Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU
As far as premium college hitters, Berry is the cream-of-the-crop, so to speak. With a 1.100 OPS and more walks than strikeouts, the fact that Berry doesn’t have a clear defensive home should be of no concern to any team. If Spencer Torkelson can go 1–1, Berry’s combination of hit, power, and discipline should be appealing to any team in the top ten.
9 — Kansas City Royals: Gavin Cross, RF, Virginia Tech
In this mock, I have Termarr Johnson slipping out of the top ten. This decision could look foolish because he’s certainly in the running for a top-three or even top-one pick, but someone of the high school bats is going to fall. As much as I would love the Royals to snag him here, they passed on both Brady House and Khalil Watson last year, and so it would certainly be a surprise for them to change course this year. More likely, they go underslot and try to add one of the top college pitchers coming off an injury in the second round, like Connor Prielipp or Peyton Pallette. And so, at 9 I have them taking Gavin Cross. The outfield depth in the organization is very thin, and while teams should never draft for need, Cross being a top-ten talent and happening to fill that void is a perfect combination. He was an advanced hitter at Virginia Tech, and he shows some plus power that would play really well in a corner outfield spot where he likely has plus defense. He will need to iron out some swing consistency issues to avoid being a platoon player, but I have the utmost confidence in the Royals’ hitting development led by Drew Saylor.
10 — Colorado Rockies: Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State
Whenever I reach the final pick in a mock draft, I like to do something out of pocket. And we know how desperately Colorado needs pitching that can succeed at Coors Field. We’ve seen time and time again that pure spin stuff often fails due to the conditions, so rather I think it would be awesome if Colorado went for Hjerpe. If you’re unfamiliar with the Oregon State lefty, he has one of the funkiest deliveries, akin to Garrett Crochet and Chris Sale, that gets significant strikeouts with deception and movement rather than pure stuff. That type of profile is one of the few that one would expect to succeed in a place that constantly causes pitchers to fail like Coors Field. Hjerpe is very unlikely to be a top ten pick, and if I were making a real predictive mock, Colorado tends to go after high school bats who fall as they did with Zach Veen, so this would likely be Termarr Johnson. But I’m just writing this for fun. So today, we are manifesting Hjerpe in the top ten.
