2021 NFL Mock Draft — Part 2
Screw the Panthers. Trying to acquire a franchise quarterback was too important that they could not just wait a couple of days for the sake of my mock draft? How inconsiderate.
Anyway, since I have absolutely no interest in redoing the first part of the mock, I will settle for a quick retcon. Actually, you know what? I have changed my mind. I am such a Sam Darnold hater that, if I were hired as GM of the Panthers within the next three weeks (oops, days) right before the draft, I would still take a quarterback. The mock continues unblemished. If your mind demands some semblance of realism, just pretend Detroit and Carolina switched their picks.
17) Las Vegas Raiders
There are legitimate questions about the value of first-round linebacker prospects. one study showed that the average war of linebacker prospects essentially does not change based on the round they are drafted. Part of this issue stems from teams drafting versatile athletes in the first round and then placing them in traditional and obsolete positions as rookies. at a certain point, the talent of a falling player overwhelms the positional value, and in a vacuum, Micah Parsons is a top ten talent. Las Vegas desperately needs linebacker talent and if they commit to using him as a chess piece, using his versatile edge ability and not shoehorning him in as a traditional linebacker, then I have no concerns about the positional value here.
Selection: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
18) Miami Dolphins
Remember when I promised to turn Miami’s defense into one of the top units in the league? I believe I can do so with just one pick. After trading away Shaq Lawson, the biggest gap on this defense is edge presence. the local kid Jaelen Phillips is probably my favorite edge rusher in the entire league. not only is he a physical marvel who entirely lives up to his billing as the top high school recruit he was, but the technique he demonstrated at Miami this past season gives me no doubts about his ability to translate. The only question is his concussion issues at UCLA, but I have seen no evidence that avoiding “injury-prone” prospects is a wise decision. Brian Flores is one of the best coaches in the entire league and adding an elite pass rusher is Miami’s best chance to contend immediately.
Selection: Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
19) Washington Football Team
Everyone’s favorite Football Team is basically entrenched in quarterback purgatory. As much as I believe Ryan Fitzpatrick can lead this team to a playoff spot, the window is open to contend with this core of young players on both sides of the football. Trading up for a quarterback is almost a must, even if getting into the top ten would cost a ton of future capital (Pittsburgh traded 20 and two seconds to move from 20 to 10 in 2019). But in this scenario where no one was willing to trade down, let us compound on Washington’s strengths.
At Notre Dame, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was essentially a slot cornerback. I would hate to see NFL teams take him away from the position he excelled at and try to shoehorn him into a traditional linebacker position. I recommended the Cardinals to use Isaiah Simmons in the same position because versatile players should be allowed to use that versatility. If Washington takes my advice, then they will get for themselves a 50-pound heavier version of Tryann Mathieu who can eliminate the middle of the field for opposing offenses.
Selection: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
20) Chicago Bears
The sad reality of Bears fans is that they are basically in the way back of the line for every quarterback-needy team. A trade-up would cost even more than it would for Washington, and they almost certainly will not be the only team trying to make such a move. Again, no willing partners in this mock, so let us try to make the best out of a bad situation. Chicago has a hole at both tackle spots, and Teven Jenkins could walk in and fill either one on the first day. Jenkins has some of the best tape of any tackle in this class; he handled both speed and power exceptionally and his mature technique is one of his best assets as a prospect. Some teams will shy away from his 32-inch arms, but good players can overcome that “deficiency” with technique, which Jenkins exudes. Whether teams feel more comfortable with him on the left or right, I do not distinguish much difference in value between the positions on the field (there is something to be said that the talent pool for left tackles is smaller), so whatever the coaches decide he fits best at, he can play.
Selection: Teven Jenkins
21) Indianapolis Colts
For a team that made the playoffs last year, even as a seven seed, the Colts have a shocking number of holes all across their roster. Given they are now facing a downgrade at the quarterback spot, ensuring the defense can remain an elite unit should be a top priority. And on that defense, there is a gaping hole at the edge position. Kwity Paye is a guy that I am certainly not as high on as the consensus seems. I do not entirely trust “toolsy” Michigan ends (@packers) who had good but not elite college production. However, being lower does not mean I think he is a bad player, and he slots in here solidly as my edge #3. Deforest Buckner needs some help off the edge with Justin Houston leaving and grabbing a guy some view as edge 1 outside the top twenty is definitely a good way to fill that hole.
Selection: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
22) Tennessee Titans
Disclaimer: I did not, do not, and will never go to medical school. I know absolutely nothing about how to evaluate football injuries, especially those which happen off the field. For now, I am going to assume my team doctors have at least tentatively cleared Caleb Farley. Even if there is still a level of injury concerns, the potential rewards of drafting a top-15 talent in the low twenties outweigh the risk. Farley is a raw cornerback prospect who has not played since 2019, but his tape from that season is solid and the athletic profile is off the charts. Cornerback tends to be the one position I trust athletic profile a bit more than film, as 51% of tier 1 cornerback athletes become starters in the NFL. Tennessee has lost three starting corners in the past two seasons and desperately needs to add talent to their defense.
Selection: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
23) New York Jets (from SEA)
After drafting the franchise quarterback, it is time to respect rule number one. Left tackle is locked in for the Jets but having an impact right tackle can be just as beneficial. A lot of people project Alijah Vera-Tucker to move to guard, which I believe to be unnecessary. Even slightly shorter and with slightly shorter arms than most teams expect out of a prototypical tackle, AVT was a dominant pass protector at USC. He into the left tackle position for the first time this season and did so seamlessly; labeling Vera-Tucker as a guard seems reductive. The Jets snag a value player because too many teams got scared away by “prototypical physical stature” (ignore the fact that I made the picks for all those teams).
Selection: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, Southern California
24) Pittsburgh Steelers
At least two people are excited for this second half of my mock to drop, and that is really a shame. The first half is certainly more interesting, evaluating the nuance between different prospects and fits with different teams while the second half of the first round is a lot simpler. With these picks, it essentially comes down to who is the best player at a position of need, and since I know less about these prospects than the ones at the very top, it often comes down to choosing a name off the list and writing some contrived reason for their positioning. In this case, Pittsburgh needs a corner, and Greg Newsome is the best corner currently on the board. Newsome is my favorite at this point simply because of his status as a tier 1 CBAT, and his film is impressive across the board. The KISS strategy rolls on through Yinzer territory.
Selection: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
25) Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
For as much time as I have spent harping about “Rule #1” (as recently as two picks ago), it is not a be-all-end-all. No analytically inclined analyst would tell you to pass up on more talented players at other positions to reach down the board for a position of need (unless that need is an early-round quarterback). At this point, there are several tackle prospects I really like, but none of them are equal to one blue-chip talent still on the board right now.
During the college season, the media consensus was that this years’ safety class is rather mediocre. Then, everyone started doing their own analysis and realized that one safety stood above the others, a guy who could be a top-twenty player if I had my own big board. Trevon Moehrig reminds me a lot of Juan Thornhill; naturally, he plays the deep middle free safety position, but he also has the ability to drop down in the box or sit across the middle. I am a big believer in the role of versatile safeties in modern NFL defenses, so Moehrig is the perfect selection for a Jacksonville team with so many holes that any blue-chip prospect falling into the twenties feels like an absolute steal.
Selection: Trevon Moehrig, S, Texas Christian
26) Cleveland Browns
The Browns roster is absolutely stacked, and their only real question for contending this season is how far Baker Mayfield can take them. Adding an interior pass rusher to make Myles Garrett’s job a lot more fun would round out any hole on this team, but there is not any player at that position I feel comfortable taking outside of Christian Barrmore, who went 12 picks ago. That does not mean this pick is a bad situation for Cleveland. They have the opportunity to make a complete luxury pick, which I cannot say the same for any other team in the first round.
This year, I promised myself I would not watch Rashod Bateman highlights to avoid falling in love with him. Well, I gave in, watched his highlights, and fell in love. At least now that the Chiefs have traded out of 31, I will not have a stressful Thursday night, hoping in vain that he would fall to us.
Bateman is the perfect x receiver for the modern NFL. Typical “possession guys” from years past had nowhere near the route running and run after catch ability that he does. In a league that values creating and utilizing space, having a guy who does both of those things very well as well as having an insane catch radius makes him a perfect fit on any team. Cleveland fills what could be a future need with another excellent value pick here in the first.
Selection: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
27) Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens, following the Orlando Brown trade, are sitting here with two clear-cut positions of need to address with two first-round picks. Lamer Jackson needs help on the offensive side at receiver, and the loss of Matthew Judon means pass rusher needs to be addressed as well. To answer which position I will address first, look at the players left on the board. There are several receivers I would feel comfortable with here, but only one edge, as I started the run on that position quite early.
Azeez Ojulari got dominated against Florida and their tackle Stone Forsythe. But one game should not overwash all of the impressive tape that he showed this season. Of all the pass rushers in this class, Ojulari might have the best pass rush technique (toss-up between him and Phillips). That NFL-ready skill combined with his freaky explosiveness makes him the perfect plug-and-play end for Baltimore here in the first. Baltimore, even though they technically run a 3–4, tends to like larger edge rushers, so I would not be surprised if Gregory Rousseau were to be the pick here. But, as I constantly harp, build the scheme around the players instead of the other way around. Ojulari is more technical and more explosive, making him the better value for Baltimore.
28) New Orleans Saints
The board has fallen in kind of a terrible way for New Orleans here in my mock. No Moehrig, no Newsome, no Ojulari, all three guys for whom I think the Saints would rush to the podium. So, it comes down to a question of the best player available.
One aspect of NFL draft analysis I hate is dismissing wide receivers as “just slot guys”. Firstly, we have seen so many college slot receivers transition to the outside in the NFL in recent years (Brown, Jefferson, etc). Secondly, even if a player is physically limited to the slot, good coaches can effectively utilize receivers no matter where they line up on the field. Elijah Moore is getting a lot of this dismissal, less so because he played the slot and more so because people believe his size will prevent him from transitioning outside. Whether he ends up in the slot or outside, Moore is explosive creating yards after the catch and has ridiculous possession ability for his size. QB1 Jameis Winston will greatly appreciate having another weapon to go along with a hopefully healthy Michael Thomas.
Selection: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
29) Green Bay Packers
Another situation here where very few of the players at the top of the board seem appealing. This is 100% anecdotal evidence, but it seems like a lot of times prospects at the end of the first round are highly touted based on athletic profile, leading to more busts. That is why, especially like last year and this year pre-trade, I like mocking mid-second prospects to teams at this range like Kansas City. And so, I am going to do the same for Green Bay here.
One of the most inexplicable moves of the offseason was where Green Bay let Corey Linsley walk in favor of paying Aaron Jones. I am not exactly sure how the value of centers compares to other offensive linemen, but I am confident that blue-chip players at that position provide value to a team’s offense. If Landon Dickerson’s medicals check out, he reminds me a lot of Travis Frederick, truly dominating defensive linemen pre-injury. Having a player like him on a five-year contract to help Rodgers chase a championship as well as eventually usher in a new quarterback is an excellent value to pick at the end of round 1.
Selection: Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama
30) Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s contending window shot open with Josh Allen’s (unprecedented) improvement in year three. If he continues playing at this level, then Buffalo has the offense to compete with any team in the league. Normally I would endorse going all-in on offense, but at this point the diminishing returns make me consider defense to be more valuable, especially considering the players on the board. Ronnie Perkins has gotten very little buzz as a first-round pick so far, but I believe he has the highest chance to contribute immediately on a contending NFL team. Perkins is a power rusher who sets incredibly strong ends in the rushing game. He is not going to beat tackles off the bend with elite athleticism, but he utilizes his pass rush moves effectively, and he was one of the few edges to give Teven Jenkins issues in college. Even though Perkins is getting very little first-round buzz, I think specifically for Buffalo here at the end of the first he makes a lot of sense.
Selection: Ronnie Perkins, EDGE, Oklahoma
31) Baltimore Ravens (from KC)
I would bet my house on Baltimore at the very least trying every possible way to trade back out of one of their two first-round picks. After addressing edge, wide receiver, cornerback, and tackle are all possible targets right here. Ironically enough, I had this very player mocked to Kansas City at 31, and even though I heavily implied in the write-up for pick 27 that this pick would be a receiver, I instead am going to address tackle to seamlessly replace Orlando Brown at right tackle.
I am going to say it: I do not care about Brady Christensen’s age. In my opinion, Christensen is easily the most underrated tackle in the class. He was the most productive tackle in college football this season, and then came out and posted one of the most absurd pro days I have ever seen. One consistently lazy take I have seen is that Christensen is unathletic and will be beaten in the NFL. His pro day clearly disproved that notion, but there is also an explanation for the tape. Christensen got beat a few times by speed around the edge, but to my (admittedly incredibly untrained eyes) he simply overextended his initial punch and got unbalanced over his feet. When his first punch does land, it is frankly impossible to dislodge from him, and I believe NFL coaching will easily erase his tendency to get too much weight out over his hands. If Christensen was two years younger, his production and athleticism would put him in the same conversation with Teven Jenkins. At his advanced age, he still is the best value currently sitting on the draft board for Baltimore here at 31.
Selection: Brady Christensen, OT, Brigham Young
32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa is very effectively modeling Kansas City’s “Run it Back” strategy following their Super Bowl win. As a spiteful Chiefs fan, I hope Tampa continues following the Chiefs 2020 offseason model by drafting a running back. As the hypothetical general manager of the Buccaneers who also happens to be a spiteful Chiefs fan, I am really angry at how good I think this pick is.
Tampa clearly won the Super Bowl with an elite defense, bookended by two outstanding pass rushers. The youngest of the two is Shaq Barrett at 28, so adding a developmental pass rusher would be perfect here. And it just happens that there is that exact type of player on the board. Joseph Ossai might be as young as 20, and he has already shown excellent production at Texas while also having an elite athletic profile. Allowing him to develop behind Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul as a rotational pass rusher, eventually stepping into the starting lineup for one of them, is such a perfect choice for Tampa that it makes me furious.
Selection: Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas
So, we reach the end of this mock with zero Chiefs analysis. I released my 2019 mock before the Frank Clark trade, so this makes my first published mock draft without a Chiefs selection. To make up for it, I will offer two potential picks for the Chiefs’ two second-round picks that I would be incredibly happy with as potential day-one contributors taken on day two.
58) Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
Tryon is getting significantly less attention than Jason Oweh, but the two have very similar track records. Oweh played better in 2020 than any season in Tryon’s career, even with no sacks, but Tryon did not play this past season. He is an athletic pass rusher who has flashes of brilliance on tape. Edge is one of the few positions I feel completely comfortable taking a guy for athletic profile over production, especially considering the Chiefs have one of the best defensive line coaches in the league in Brendan Daly.
63) Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State
If you are looking for a poor-man’s version of Rashod Bateman, then Wallace is the exact type of player for you. Another modern possession receiver who does not have a ton of tape separating across the middle, but some of his Senior Bowl routes were very impressive. Wallace produced all three seasons at Oklahoma State, even recovering from a knee injury this season. I am frankly befuddled by anyone who values any position besides edge more than receiver. We have seen the past two seasons that the Chiefs have had some issues while missing one of their top pass catchers. Wallace could fix any depth issues, add a different type of receiver to the Chiefs offense, and might still be available if the Chiefs wanted to trade back into the third round.
To recap, the final mock for the 2021 draft looks like this: (thanks Carolina)
1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2) New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, Brigham Young
3) San Francisco 49ers (from HOU through MIA): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
4) Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
5) Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
6) Miami Dolphins (from PHI): Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Louisiana State
7) Detroit Lions: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
8) Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
9) Denver Broncos: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
10) Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
11) New York Giants: Jason Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
12) Philadelphia Eagles (from SF through MIA): Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
13) Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
14) Minnesota Vikings: Christian Barrmore, DT, Alabama
15) New England Patriots: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
16) Arizona Cardinals: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
17) Las Vegas Raiders: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
18) Miami Dolphins: Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
19) Washington Football Team: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
20) Chicago Bears: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
21) Indianapolis Colts: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
22) Tennessee Titans: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
23) New York Jets (from SEA): Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, Southern California
24) Pittsburgh Steelers: Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
25) Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR): Trevon Moehrig, S, Texas Christian
26) Cleveland Browns: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
27) Baltimore Ravens: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
28) New Orleans Saints: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
29) Green Bay Packers: Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama
30) Buffalo Bills: Ronnie Perkins, EDGE, Oklahoma
31) Baltimore Ravens (from KC): Brady Christensen, OT, Brigham Young
32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas
