2021 NFL Mock Draft — Part 1

It is the first week of April. I have three midterms, three projects, and hundreds of lines of Latin to translate within the next seven days. So, what better use of my time is there than writing thousands of words about my absolute favorite day of the year. It is always draft season, but it just so happens that right now it’s especially draft season.

Every year I do a little manifesto on why the NFL Draft is so special to me. That will surely continue as long as I can figure out enough different ways to say the same thing each year, but this time I have a way of expressing this feeling more succinctly than I have before: the draft is the one day of the year I want the best for every NFL team. Each pick determines the future of the league, and so the better the picks, the higher quality football I will get to watch. Now, that is not a blanket statement. I do not actively wish for division rivals or teams with quarterbacks named Thomas to make good picks, so let us say it holds for about 85–90% of the league.

One other tradition to address: in the past, I have fluctuated this year between predictive mocks and balances between predictive and what I would do. This year, I am going hard left. Every pick would be what I would do as the NFL general manager for that team. So, no running backs are going in these 32 picks at all. Enjoy.

1) Jacksonville Jaguars

If you have seen any of my Twitter feed, you know I love making bold quarterback claims trying to see what sticks to the wall. Although I’m always tempted to slot a certain BYU quarterback at this spot, Trevor Lawrence gives a team desperate for a franchise quarterback so much stability and optimism. Teams need a top ten quarterback (or a historic defense, and it is honestly an interesting question which is harder to get) to have any chance at a Super Bowl, and so while Wilson could be a top-three quarterback, Trevor has demonstrated all the arm talent, mobility, and processing necessary to reach that top ten mark. He has been locked into 1.1 since the 2019 National Championship Game, and even my red-hot quarterback takes are not enough to dislodge him.

Selection: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2) New York Jets

I spent equally as much time talking about a different quarterback as the quarterback Jacksonville actually took in that last write-up, so this one will remain short and sweet (ß this is a lie). I am head over heels in love with Zach Wilson. I always harp that playmaking ability is the most important trait to look for when evaluating college quarterbacks. Quarterbacks who can single-handedly elevate their team are at the very minimum going to have a comfortable floor in the NFL. I am not worried either about Wilson’s level of play. In the Coastal Carolina game, BYU was outmatched at every position, but they were still inches away from victory thanks to their signal caller. Anyway, I would rather have a quarterback who elevated his team against worse competition than one who didn’t against better opponents. Around the league people seem to think this pick is locked in; it has been for me since November.

Selection: Zach Wilson, QB, Brigham Young

3) San Francisco 49ers (from HOU via MIA)

Trading up in the first round of the NFL Draft is very stupid*. Trading up in the top half of the first round is even worse*. Giving up cost-controlled future assets for one specific player when there are multiple players of at worst equal talent at a team’s original slot is bad and dumb*. (*unless the targeted player is a quarterback; then it rocks). Now that I am done waxing for my own amusement, let’s get back to the Niners. I will be honest: I had written off Justin Fields following the Indiana game. But his performances in the postseason, especially against Clemson, gave me second thoughts about sample size and whatnot. The metrics are alarming: no quarterback over 1.0% interception rate in his final season has been a quality NFL starter, and Fields was at 2.0% in 2020. The processing must get better in the NFL, and I tend (in the past year or so) to be someone who would much rather have a quarterback with mechanical issues than processing issues because mechanics are much easier to fix. That being said, Fields has all of the physical tools necessary to succeed as an NFL quarterback, and I could see him reaching Ryan Tannehill heights under Kyle Shanahan.

Selection: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

4) Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons restructured Matt Ryan’s contract in the 2021 offseason, making it so that cutting him is nearly impossible for the next three years. When a team has a quarterback on the wrong side of 30 and a top-five pick, I would advocate drafting a quarterback almost every time. But considering that quarterback would need to stay benched for three seasons, that takes away every advantage of having a cheap rookie QB contract. So, onto the next best option. Julio Jones is aging, and Calvin Ridley wants to get paid. But the Falcons definitely should not draft a wide receiver because, well, Kyle Pitts is better. Kansas City basically uses Travis Kelce as a slot receiver anyway, and Pitts has the exact skillset and production to fill a similar role. If you are committing to Matt Ryan for three years, then dammit get him some help. Drafting tight ends in the first round is dumb, except for when they are a generational talent.

Selection: Kyle Pitts, basically a wide receiver, Florida

5) Cincinnati Bengals

Have I mentioned this draft class is stupid loaded? In any other draft without a definitive #1 overall worthy quarterback, Penei Sewell would be the number one pick every single year. I don’t care that he didn’t play in 2020. The man ran through the entire PAC-12 as a nineteen-year-old. I know reuniting Ja’Marr Chase with his LSU teammate is tempting, but the positional value comes into play here. A receiver in the second round is much more likely to be successful than a tackle, so I would much rather have the player I know is going to be elite at a position much harder to acquire.

Selection: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

6) Miami Dolphins (from PHI)

Miami, I am unhappy with you. I was giving you so many props for trading down to 12 for two additional first round assets, and then you gave it all (well, half of it) away. Obviously, if I was Miami’s general manager that Eagles trade would never have happened. Since I have apparently been hired just before the Dolphins come on the clock, let us pick for them. I know it seemed in the last pick that I dislike Ja’Marr Chase. I have full confidence that Chase will be an excellent NFL player, but now I am going to claim just from anecdotal evidence that OT1 usually turns out better than WR1 in any class. I was initially on board with replacing Tua, but a certain quarterback trade is now out of the question, and I would rather have Tua than Trey Lance. The only other option would be to turn Miami into an f-you-type defense, which I think is their best strategy for contention, but I will address that at pick 18.

Selection: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Louisiana State

7) Detroit Lions

I have no clue what to do here. I have a draft take for every NFL team, but I have none for the Lions. I am quite literally writing this intro before deciding who to take here. Okay, I decided. Detroit seems to be setting itself up for a half-decade rebuild. That means no quarterback and no wide receiver here. A lot of people look at Rashawn Slater and see 6’3” and immediately plug him into guard. On the other hand, I have always felt that measurable requirements for playing tackle are for the most part overblown. Slater has the technique and the production to remain at tackle, where he can protect Jared Goff (lol) now and Jayden Daniels five years from now when the Lions win their first playoff game in however many years.

Selection: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

8) Carolina Panthers

1,500 words and I am not even a quarter of a way through the first round? This might have to be a two-parter. Anyway, I am picking Trey Lance for Carolina. They have been adamant about adding a franchise quarterback this offseason. Normally I shy away from potential > production prospects, especially at the quarterback position. But the global pandemic has changed everything this year, including my draft philosophy. Trey Lance’s only sizeable play came as a nineteen-year-old where he absolutely dominated. Carolina, with its bridge QB (hehe) offensive weapons, respectable line, and elite HC/OC tandem are the perfect place to develop a guy like Lance for a year.

Selection: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

9) Denver Broncos

Guys, I promise I am genuinely trying to make the best pick for every single team. But I just cannot help it. Maybe every person who tries to draft for Denver gets infected with the Elway curse. I just cannot resist the tall white quarterback. Now, while granted I will not stop laughing if Denver actually takes Mac Jones, I definitely do not think it is immediately a terrible pick. Denver is a quarterback away from contending, and Jones is certainly their best option at an upgrade at the moment. Even though I am skeptical about the future of a pocket passer quarterback without an elite arm, McCorkle is far and away the best option for Denver if they want to compete in 2021.

Selection: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

10) Dallas Cowboys

Dallas narrowly avoided the “finding out” phase with Dak Prescott and wisely locked up their top ten quarterback. Dak has plenty of weapons on offense (including a backup running back who is the best running back on the roster), so let us put a band-aid on that defense that quite literally made me enjoy football less every time I watched it (yes, the entire point of my Cowboys write-up is to start a fight in my hypothetical audience). The Cowboys sorely missed Byron Jones this season, and even before Caleb Farley’s surgery and before Jaycee Horn’s pro day, I have been consistent with Patrick Surtain as my number one cornerback. He ran a *measly* 4.4s 40 and has the best technique of any corner in this class. I even have a higher grade on him than I did Jeff Okudah last year, which just goes to show how absurd this draft class is. With Slater off the board, Dallas has the easiest choice outside of the top five so far.

Selection: Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama

11) New York Giants

This pick is definitely where this draft starts deviating wildly from the consensus. I am positive that each of the first ten picks has been in the mock draft of someone reputable, but I cannot say the same for Jason Oweh as an almost top-ten pick. First off, let me address the obvious. No, I am not worried about the 0 sacks. The pandemic throws all counting stats out the window, especially for a BIG 10 player, and he still generated pressure at a very efficient rate. That actually makes me more secure in this pick knowing that he just started playing football in high school and he’s already influencing the game. The Giants have missed elite athleticism off the edge since JPP left (a strikingly similar prospect to Oweh) and they already addressed wide receiver. If Daniel Jones is holding on for another year, might as well address the biggest hole on defense, turning it into a low-key scary unit that could feast in an offense-weak division.

Selection: Jason Oweh, EDGE, Penn State

12) Philadelphia Eagles (from SF through MIA)

The Eagles made a savvy trade last week, adding a first round pick next season for the chance to select basically the same caliber of player they would have had available to them at their original slot. After the disaster that was the Jalen Reagor pick, Eagles fans might be apprehensive about going for another skinny wide receiver. But there is one key factor that makes me feel completely safe selecting Devonta Smith: route running. Last season, arguably the three most productive receivers (Brandon Aiyuk, Justin Jefferson, and Jerry Jeudy) were all already polished route runners entering the league. Getting open is first and foremost for young receivers, and I do not need to say much about Smith’s route running. Even though his teammate may have more “upside”, it is not really a contest about which Alabama wide receiver I prefer.

Selection: Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

13) Los Angeles Chargers

Rule number one for having a stud young quarterback: do not kill him. This will be the shortest write-up in the entire mock, which is great considering it is for a team I hate. Christian Darrisaw is an absolute wall at left tackle. He has the size, athleticism, and production of at least a solid starting NFL left tackle, which is equally as valuable as an elite player at some other positions. The laughter I expressed when the Chargers drafted Herbert is definitely a lot less funny these days.

Selection: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

14) Minnesota Vikings

If Jason Oweh was my favorite pick so far, this Vikings selection is a close second. The Vikings have an issue, which is Danielle Hunter is unhappy. One way to make him happy is to add a second pass rusher to the defensive line. Before anyone asks which edge I am taking here, let me espouse: the best compliment to an elite edge rusher is an elite interior rusher, and vice versa. Interior rush collapses the pocket, forcing quarterbacks into the arms of edge rushers, and edge rush forces quarterbacks to step up, again for their teammate to clean up. Look at the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl. Or Chris Jones and Dee Ford in 2018. Or Nick Bosa and DeForest Buckner in 2019. Or so many other examples. Christian Barmore is easily the best interior rusher in this class. Not only does he have the freak athleticism akin to Chris Jones, but he also was incredibly productive for three years in college. Guard is deep in this class, and so I would much rather spend a premium pick making the Vikings’ best player happy and also making their pass rush an absolute nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.

Selection: Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama

15) New England Patriots

If the Patriots have any hope of competing with Cam Newton, their only feasible path is reconstructing the elite defense of 2019. While it might not be the best strategy to make decisions based on a veteran, stop-gap quarterback who has completely lost his deep ball, the Patriots are certainly in win-now mode. It is tempting to take a linebacker here, especially considering who is falling, but cornerback is looking to be a potential issue. Stefon Gilmore might never the same as his defensive player of the year season, and New England seems none too excited to bring back JC Jackson. Jaycee Horn impressed the entire league with his pro day, and his ball-hawking tape backs up the physical numbers. Bill Belichick seems to enjoy finding quality corners off the scrap heap, but giving him a blue-chip at this position could be the fastest way to revitalize that defensive unit.

16) Arizona Cardinals

I have essentially had Horn slotted in here permanently, so when he went off the board I had to re-evaluate. When I realized a certain prospect was still on the board, I started cackling. If the Cardinals want to contend, the best way for them to do so is to expand on their already dangerous offense. AJ Green is not a sufficient WR2 in 2021, but Jaylen Waddle absolutely is. Can you possibly imagine Waddle across from Deandre Hopkins catching Kyler bombs? Not only is this pick great value, not only does it fit a need, but Waddle is the exact deep threat who would pair perfectly with Hopkins that Arizona has tried to find with Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella. The NFL is rapidly polarizing, and this pick gives Arizona the opportunity to field one of the best offensive units in the league.

Selection: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

This mock draft has basically confirmed that I am a lunatic. Nearly 3000 words written on a project that maybe ten people will read. And I have an overwhelming amount of school work.

Oh well. Part 2 will be out next week.