2021 MLB Draft — Quick Thoughts Hours Before
The 2021 MLB Draft is today, and I figured I might as well share a few thoughts with my faithful readership. Unlike its NFL counterpart, I am not nearly as well-versed with all of the prospects, mostly due to the fact that most of these prospects will take three years to play in the majors, if they make it at all. However, due to my beloved Royals once again picking in the top ten, I know a good amount of information and rumors about these prospects, at least enough to share.
Once again unlike my NFL draft coverage, this will less be a collected narrative and more so something that resembles a brain dump of all the information that has been rattling around in my brain for the past month. I hope that manifests itself more as a quirk than a deficiency.
Finally, before I get into the individual picks, a quick forward about this draft. I am especially excited because, from a media perspective, there is almost nothing separating the top 5–6 picks. Meaning, everything we heard leading up to this draft and, consequentially, everything I am about to write could be for naught.
Also, quick note. For each “What I Would Do” pick, I will be acting as if my predictions for the previous pick are the actual pick. So, a player can and probably will be repeated in that section.
1) Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are going to take the top hitter on their board. Because most people believe Marcelo Mayer, a high school shortstop, to be the best hitter, he has been essentially locked into this spot. I’m not disagreeing with that sentiment, but personally, as far as a prep hitter goes, there is not a ton that really separates him, especially in the MLB draft where outcomes are so varied. The other option here, rather than the best high school hitter, is the best college hitter. Henry Davis’ bat is really close to Adley Rutschman; the only reason he’s not considered as good of a prospect is because Davis probably will not stick at catcher. Even in that case, Davis’ combination of power and his incredibly professional approach make him the top prospect on my board.
Prediction: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
What I Would Do: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
2) Texas Rangers
The Rangers originally seemed like a simple dichotomy. Either Jack Leiter, the top college pitcher, or Jordan Lawlar, the local prep shortstop considered just below Mayer. But in recent days, there has been a strong surge in Texas for Leiter’s teammate Kumar Rocker. A lot of people consider Leiter and Rocker 1A/1B in terms of pitchers, but I prefer Leiter for a couple reasons. Rocker’s fluctuating fastball velocity as well as his uncertain change-up are both concerning; each issue individually would be easy to work past but combined increases the concern. Rocker would certainly be a surprise here, which is rather ironic considering it absolutely would not have been if I said the same thing six months ago. At this point, given that these type of rumors in baseball are much more trustworthy than in football (although certainly not 100%), I’d consider this pick a toss-up between the Vanderbilt pitchers.
Prediction: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
What I Would Do: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
3) Detroit Tigers
The Tigers pick would seem to be rather simple; just take whichever of the top guys fall. However, the Tigers seem to be infatuated with a number of high school prospects. The three I have heard most about are shortstops Kahlil Watson and Brady House, and pitcher Jackson Jobe. In short — Watson has an incredible hit tool, House has an incredible power tool, and Jobe (even though he’s a high school right hander, the scariest type of prospect) throws a fastball that has 3000 RPM of spin. It really seems like Detroit is just hanging out in their own little bubble and has a plan regardless of what happens 1 and 2.
Prediction: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
What I Would Do: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX)
4) Boston Red Sox
Jack Leiter wants to go to the Red Sox, and apparently, he has been trying to price himself out of the top three teams’ budgets. I certainly don’t think that Boston would complain about ending up with Jack Leiter. That said, if Henry Davis and Leiter are both on the board, it would basically be a toss-up between the two, with an outside chance that Kahlil Watson’s hit tool outweighs both players. Lawlar would certainly be considered here as well, but he just seems like a prime candidate to fall if no one is absolutely in love with him. Either of the college players would be excellent picks for Boston.
Prediction: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
What I Would Do: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
5) Baltimore Orioles
Every media person seems convinced that Baltimore is going to underslot some player. This certainty is a combination of some actual rumors as well as the fact Baltimore did the exact thing with the number two pick last year. If they do so, Colton Cowser from Sam Houston, an outfielder with solid hit and power tool who actually could be a legitimate top-ten prospect. However, one player could throw that underslot idea out of the window, and that is the man most mentioned on this document so far. Having Rutschman and Davis in the same organization would give Baltimore two of the most polished hitters to ever come out of college baseball, and there’s almost no concern about having no place to put Davis, given that his most likely outcome is third base or corner outfield.
Prediction: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
What I Would Do: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
6) Arizona Diamondbacks
Given how the board has fallen so far, Arizona seems destined to end the fall of one of the high school shortstops. This could also be another landing place for Kumar Rocker and is almost certainly the floor for Henry Davis, much to the chagrin of my Royals fandom. Given the helium surrounding Kahlil Watson, he seems more likely for this pick. Lawlar has dealt with a good amount of prospect fatigue and the fallacy of being incredibly well-rounded without any defining tool, even though that completeness makes him more likely to succeed as a prospect.
Prediction: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
What I Would Do: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX)
7) Kansas City Royals
I have never seen something in the draft media like what has happened with the predictions for this Royals pick. Quite literally everybody has mocked Kumar Rocker to the Royals. In the end, I think the Royals are taking a high school shortstop. As much as I would love Davis, it seems like Watson, House, and Lawlar are all in consideration here. There has been a lot of connection between the Royals and House, but even if he’s on the board with Lawlar, I would hope the Royals simply take the best player available (ignore the fact that I retweeted an article about how BPA maybe isn’t great like two days ago).
Prediction: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX)
What I Would Do: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX)
8) Colorado Rockies
The Rockies seem to be in a prime position to take whichever high school shortstop falls outside of the top seven. Unfortunately, in this mock, all four have been taken. In this case, I would be all in on just one player that has not even gotten a mention yet. Let me shout it from the metaphorical rooftops: Sam Bachman is the perfect pitching prospect for Colorado. At Coors, where the altitude reduces the impacts of spin (meaning they definitely should not target Jackson Jobe), a sinker-baller who gets ground balls nonstop is the type of pitcher the Rockies need to target. About Bachman — he throws a freaking 101 MPH turbo-sinker. He could legitimately be a dominant strikeout pitcher who manages to thrive in Coors because of his ground ball tendencies. I think this pick is a match made in heaven.
Prediction: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (OH)
What I Would Do: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (OH)
9) Los Angeles Angels
At a certain point, the talent outweighs the risk of high school pitchers, and here at nine is about where I would start to feel comfortable taking a player like Jackson Jobe. The Angels are currently wasting two generational talents, so why not add a third to that organization. Given how the top picks are going to be some order of the consensus top prospects, this point pretty much any player from tier 2 could fit in here, which includes a litany of high school and college bats. Some names to watch are Sal Frelick, Colton Cowser, and Matt McClain. But with a talent like Jobe still on the board, those guys are probably not going to factor in at nine.
Prediction: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
What I Would Do: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
10) New York Mets
This pick is kind of the perfect place to end the mock because I frankly have no clue what the Mets will do. In the past, they have liked taking a high school hitter a little further down the consensus board, but really any of the hitters, high school or college, could be in play here. At this point, I am just going to admit I have no idea and throw a couple names off the board. Enjoy the draft.
Prediction: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
What I Would Do: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
