2020 NFL Mock Draft — Part 2

Let’s get straight into part 2. The write-ups will be somewhat shorter, just because I’ve spent less time evaluating these players and team situations. Hopefully, you still enjoy reading, or at least just enjoy scrolling straight to the Chiefs’ pick.

17 — Dallas Cowboys

This offseason had been hyped as doomsday for the Cowboys, as they had to pay half of the team, including quarterback Dak Prescott (which they still haven’t done yet). Keeping Prescott on the franchise tag as well as resigning Amari Cooper meant a mass exodus of defensive players, including star cornerback Byron Jones, edge Robert Quinn, and tackle Maliek Collins. Who could have thought there would be consequences to overpaying a running back?

After losing Jones, both safety and cornerback are clear needs for Dallas. In recent years, conventional wisdom has evolved to believe that cornerbacks and safeties can have similar value for a defense. So, Dallas should simply choose the best secondary player available on the board, and that player is Xavier McKinney.

McKinney makes sense for a team like Dallas with multiple holes in the secondary, as his versatility is his calling card; at Alabama, McKinney played safety, nickel corner, and dime linebacker. He struggles at deep zone, but that doesn’t mean he’s less of a prospect, just that Dallas should not play him there. McKinney should be utilized just as he was in college, either in the slot or in the box, where his playmaking and versatility will be most appreciated.

Pick: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

18 — Miami Dolphins (from PIT)

I’ve already spent a lot of time talking about how Miami needs to invest in the offensive line to protect their young franchise quarterback. In this draft class, there are two tiers of offensive tackle: there’s a clear top four, and then there are a bunch of developmental tackles who should be second round picks at the earliest. Sitting right on the cusp of this tier is Josh Jones. A lot of people can’t figure out whether he fits into the top tier or the developmental tier.

To me, Josh Jones is a poor man’s Mekhi Becton. He doesn’t have the same overwhelming strength, but his combination of size and speed make him a very intriguing prospect. However, he has the exact same technical problems that Becton does, and he played against a lower level of competition in the AAC.

18 is probably a bit early for Jones. However, given how thin the tackle class is after him, there’s almost no chance he falls to Miami’s third first just 8 picks later. I’m normally not an advocate of reaching just to fill a need, but Jones has the upside to make the value at this pick work.

Pick: Josh Jones, OT, Houston

19 — Las Vegas Raiders (from CHI)

When I dropped part 1, this team was 100% still listed as the Oakland Raiders. Either nobody read that far, or nobody noticed. Either way, the LAS VEGAS Raiders have a dilemma at quarterback. Statistically, Derek Carr was an above-average quarterback, and one could definitely make an argument that with the right roster. he could take his team to a playoff spot as he (kind of) did in 2016. However, some coach is going to fall in love with a certain quarterback prospect by the name of Jordan Love. And Jon Gruden is a prime candidate to do so in my eyes.

For those of you who have heard the comparison to Patrick Mahomes, throw it right out the window now. In college, Mahomes never had the accuracy or interception issues Love had in 2019, and Love is not near the Mahomes as a playmaker, even college Mahomes. However, he has a cannon for an arm, and he did show positive production in 2018, even if he regressed hard the following season. Losing your top weapons is not a valid excuse for a first-round pick when playing against Mountain West secondaries.

Even with all the negatives I just listed about Love, his arm talent still gives him incredible upside. And a team like Vegas, who is set at quarterback for the 2020 season and has multiple first round assets, taking a shot at a guy like Love makes sense.

Pick: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

20 — Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)

As the two teams above them reach on offensive players, Jacksonville has a chance to sit back and take BPA with the Rams’ pick (who are, to be blunt, absolutely fucked between cap hell and not having a first round pick until 2022). No one can decide who the second-best cornerback in the 2020 class is. Jacksonville has a history of taking high-upside athletic defenders from the state of Florida, which perfectly fits CJ Henderson.

Henderson has gotten something of the Greedy Williams “he doesn’t like to tackle” spin this draft period, leading some to think he’s a top-ten pick while others think he should fall out of the first round completely; I’ll split the difference. He is strong in both man and zone, and his ball skills lead me to a Marcus Peters comparison, and Peters wasn’t the same caliber of athlete as a prospect. I think the tackling issues are overblown just as they were for Williams, and the combination of coverage proficiency, ball skills, and athleticism make him well worth a top-20 pick.

Pick: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida

21 — Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles’ best receiver in 2019 was Greg Ward. After addressing their other biggest need by acquiring Darius Slay, it’s obvious to see why I’m mocking them a receiver.

Justin Jefferson took himself from a potentially undrafted free agent to first-round prospect with an incredible 2019 college season. One reason I love Jefferson is his versatility and an all-around skill set. He played almost every receiver position for LSU, and he has one of the best combinations of route running and contested catch ability in this class. His floor is very high and could at least be a productive slot receiver for Philadelphia year one.

Not only does Jefferson have a very satisfying skill set, he also has an athletic profile that heightens his ceiling. He might not be the best prospect in this class, but he is absolutely my favorite. Just as he was Joe Burrow’s favorite receiver, expect him to become Carson Wentz’s favorite very soon.

Pick: Justin Jefferson, WR, Louisiana State

22 — Minnesota Vikings (from BUF)

After playing the trade market almost perfectly and getting great value in return for Stefon Diggs, Minnesota now has two first round picks. After releasing Everson Griffen, edge rush opposite Danielle Hunter becomes a top need, and Minnesota should count themselves lucky to have a player on the board at this spot who could start day one but also has premiere potential.

Yetur Gross-Matos is a power edge rusher, which would compliment Hunter’s speed very nicely. While his most appealing attribute as a prospect is his pass rush potential, Matos is a day one edge starter as a run defender. He’s a perfect definition of a high floor, high upside prospect, and he improved every year in college. Minnesota has an excellent opportunity to plug two holes with two first round picks, and Gross-Matos would be the perfect player to fill the first.

Pick: Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State

23 — New England Patriots

Even with the departure of Tom Brady, I would be shocked if the Patriots went quarterback here. Jordan Love, the only first-round prospect who could be available here, is the antithesis of a Bill Belichick quarterback. I actually think Jake Fromm would make a lot of sense as a second-round pick (think Andy Dalton-type value), but 23 is way too early for him. Instead, the Patriots should focus on shoring up their elite defense which has lost some top caliber players over the past two offseasons, especially at the edge position in Kyle Van Noy and Trey Flowers.

Now, Flowers and Van Noy are very different players. Van Noy is undersized and has excellent versatility as a roamer, while Flowers is larger than most ends but is still a top-caliber pass rusher. AJ Epenesa, at 275 pounds and my mocked selection here, is much more like Flowers than Van Noy. Epenesa started the season as a top-ten prospect and has fallen mostly out of concern of his upside. He doesn’t have the same potential as Chaisson or Gross-Matos, but he could easily end up being the best of the three. His production at Iowa is better than either of the aforementioned players, with 22 sacks over three seasons. Belichick’s ability to get the most out of his pass rushers combined with his similarities to Flowers make Epenesa an incredible value for the Patriots.

Pick: AJ Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa

24 — New Orleans Saints

The Saints entered the offseason with a pressing need at wide receiver. However, having signed Emmanuel Sanders, they would be much better off grabbing a middle/late-round prospect in this stacked class. That leaves MIKE linebacker as the biggest hole, and Kenneth Murray would fit that need perfectly.

Murray demonstrated in 2019 that he is an excellent defender in the run game. His pursuit speed and his impressive tackling skills could turn him into a sideline-to-sideline run defender. While he was not tested much in coverage, its not a concern, just an area for improvement. With Manti Te’o currently unsigned, the Saints would be thrilled to add Murray to plug right into the middle of the Saints’ defense.

Pick: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

25 — Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have lost three cornerbacks this offseason. Well, lost is a generous word as all three have debatable starter value left. However, Holton Hill and Mike Hughes are not enough. Having addressed one defensive hole at pick 22, the Vikings should address the other here at 25.

Jeff Gladney has skyrocketed up draft boards this season and has joined Henderson in conversations about the second-best cornerback prospect. Gladney might have been the only good cornerback in the entire Big 12 this year. His biggest “question mark” is his length, and I put that in quotes because I don’t really believe it’s much of an issue when a player can cover as well as Gladney can. It’s very challenging to poke holes into his game, and Minnesota would be acquiring a player with number one cornerback potential with this pick.

Pick: Jeff Gladney, CB, Texas Christian

26 — Miami Dolphins (from HOU)

Even after selecting Josh Jones at pick 18, the Dolphins still desperately need offensive line help. When Ereck Flowers is your best offensive lineman, something needs to change. The NFL is quickly realizing that interior linemen are just as valuable as tackles. After Garrett Bradbury went 18th overall last year, Miami would be incredibly fortunate to take the better version of Bradbury in Cesar Ruiz 8 picks later.

The biggest issue with Bradbury so far has been his power base. While his agility allows him to get to the second level in the run game, his pass protection could have been better as he struggled to gain leverage against stronger interior blockers. Ruiz has the exact same athleticism that made Bradbury rapidly rise as the draft approaches. However, he also has that anchor that Bradbury is desperately missing. Ruiz could become the foundation of Miami’s offensive line for a generation and also become Tua’s best friend.

Pick: Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan

27 — Seattle Seahawks

I feel like a broken record saying that until Seattle addresses their atrocious offensive line in the first round, I won’t mock such a player to them. However, at least it would make sense this year, as at the moment, there isn’t an offensive lineman, interior or exterior, whose value fits the selection here. With that positional group out of the way, the next biggest need is on the defensive line. For now, it seems the Seahawks are not going to bring back Jadaveon Clowney, or if they are, they are in no rush to do so, making edge rusher the top priority at this pick.

Zack Baun is not a perfect fit. In a 4–3, he doesn’t have a defined role, as his success at Wisconsin came from rushing then dropping into coverage. He’s also slightly undersized for the position. However, he has very solid pass rush technique, and he never relied on overwhelming athleticism to win in college.

This was probably one of the hardest picks to project of this mock, and I’m sure Seattle fans would be rolling their eyes about taking another defensive lineman with an undefined role for the second year in a row. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle trades back like they often do if the board fell this way. This pick is probably one of the only ones in my first round where I wouldn’t be excited with the pick if I were a fan of that team.

Pick: Zack Baun, EDGE, Wisconsin

28 — Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore’s entire defense was fantastic this past season, and a lot of credit should go to the front seven (a lot of credit should also go to the secondary, FWIW). However, linebacker was the one position that was lacking on that defensive unit. The Ravens also lost Michael Pierce in free agency, who was a key anchor on the defensive line. Either linebacker or defensive line should be the pick here and ensure that unit remains at the caliber it was last season.

Patrick Queen projects better as a 4–3 outside WILL linebacker. However, he excelled at a 3–4 inside position in college, and in the modern NFL with nickel packages becoming base defense, there really isn’t a lot of difference between the two positions. Queen is one of my favorite players in the entire draft, and it would hurt to see him go to a conference rival so shortly before the Chiefs pick. His combination of run-stopping and coverage ability, mixed with his athletic profile, make him one of the most exciting linebacker prospects I’ve ever seen.

Pick: Patrick Queen, LB, Louisiana State

29 — Tennessee Titans

Tennessee would be very frustrated to see Baun go just two picks higher. Ironically, I would be really excited about the fit here, but not for Seattle. I’m probably overhyping positional value, as I mentioned there really is not a ton of difference between a 4–3 and a 3–4 in the modern league. With a steep drop off in edge talent and no obvious tackle worth the selection, the Titans should look to replace Jurrell Casey, who they shipped off for peanuts in a move I don’t really understand.

At this point, it’s a toss-up between two defensive line prospects here. Ross Blacklock seems to be the consensus better player here, and I admittedly have not done enough work to be able to make a strong counterargument. He was used somewhat as a nose tackle in college, but most of his production and his NFL projection is as a 3-tech. Blacklock would be able to fit in across from 2019 first round pick Jeffrey Simmons to form a solid defensive front for Tennessee, who’s defense was the most underrated part of their improbable playoff run this past season.

Pick: Ross Blacklock, DT, Texas Christian

30 — Green Bay Packers

Tee Higgins might be one of the most polarizing prospects in the class. Not only is his skill set polarizing, but he rubbed many the wrong way with his actions at the combine and ended up not being able to work out at a pro day due to the current pandemic.

His route tree is underdeveloped, but his physicals and catch ability remind me a lot of DK Metcalf from last year’s class. Higgins is nowhere near as fast as Metcalf, but if he’s used in the right way, no one will notice the lack of route running polish. Green Bay needs another receiver desperately across from Davante Adams. It comes down to team preference at this point between Higgins and Denzel Mims. I’d go with Higgins purely due to production, and I think he would be a better complement to Adams.

Pick: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

31 — San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco, like Dallas, has holes all over the secondary, so it would serve in their best interests to take the best secondary player available. Unlike the Dallas selection, said BPA is a cornerback instead of a safety. Kristian Fulton is the definition of a high floor, low ceiling type player. He was very productive in college, but a lot of indicators on tape suggest he does not have a ton more room to grow. However, at pick 31, San Francisco would be beyond happy with a player like Fulton to plug and play day one and not have to worry about the position again until Richard Sherman loses a step (which could be sooner than later).

Pick: Kristian Fulton, CB, Louisiana State

32 — Kansas City Chiefs

And now we get to the defending Super Bowl champions, my favorite team and the favorite team of 99% of my reader base. Thus, it pains me to say I have absolutely no clue what the Chiefs should do here if the board falls this way. Having Gladney, Fulton, Ruiz, and Queen all go off the board right before the Chiefs’ selection would be painful.

Let me rephrase: I know exactly what they should do. The Chiefs should trade down. Being just $177 over the salary cap as of one day ago combined with the fact that they only have five draft picks at the moment means trading down and acquiring assets would be the best strategy in the first place. It would especially be the best strategy if the best players on the draft board are running backs and wide receivers. As fun as it would be to say screw your defense and take Denzel Mims, it’s just not a realistic selection at this point.

I know this may come as a disappointment to my readers, many of whom I assume have been reading just to find who I am mocking to the Chiefs. (Note: I have not successfully mocked a player to the Chiefs in 7 years, even when they had the number one overall pick. Me mocking a player to the Chiefs is as close to a guarantee that player will not be in Kansas City come next fall).

Regardless, with the way this board fell, I still want to make this pick entertaining for my readers. So, since it’s last in the first round and has no consequence on how the rest of the mock will play out, I wanted to go out of the box as much as possible for this selection.

So, I am mocking the Chiefs Kyle Dugger, who attended a Division II school just three times the size of my high school. He’s a safety who has skyrocketed up boards mostly due to his Senior Bowl performance. Except, I wouldn’t play him at safety. I’ve harped on this point a lot in this mock, but defenses are changing in the NFL. Linebackers are becoming smaller and faster to respond to the passing revolution. One of my favorite non-Chiefs is Falcons’ linebacker Deion Jones, who also played safety in college.

Now, Steve Spagnuolo seems to strongly dislike undersized linebackers, which is exactly what Duggar would be in my version of the Chiefs’ defense. However, having an athletic, elite coverage player could anchor the middle of the defense in a way the Chiefs have not had since Derrick Johnson began his regression (although it goes without saying Dugger is a completely different player).

Pick: Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne

Shout out to anyone who made it through all 8000 words across these two articles. I’ll definitely be dropping a draft grade writeup once the first round is over and might go back and reevaluate my grades from the 2017 draft.