2020 NFL Mock Draft — Part 1

I was always going to get around to this (well, probably), but thanks to a little good old-fashioned peer pressure from the one and only Milky Sanch, I am thrilled to present my first mock draft of the 2020 draft season. Considering I have not had class in a classroom since March 6th, I am surprised it took me so long to finally drop a mock. However, part of the fun of writing mocks is ignoring your classics professor explain characteristics of the Greek gods that you’ve known since elementary school.

With that being said, the draft is pretty much the only sports thing we have to look forward to until… well, its anyone’s guess. What that means is that people who don’t normally follow the draft will this year, and since I have “knowledge” and “experience” talking about the draft, they will turn to me for context, thus inflating my ego to dangerous new heights. I am very excited.

This mock will be a careful balance between what I would do and what I think will happen. Basically, what that means is I will value players I like higher and be more likely to put them in spots I think are good fits, but I’m not going to tank a player just because I dislike him nor vice versa (for example, I’m not going to mock Tua to the Giants even though that’s exactly the move I would make if I were hired as the Giants GM today). Also, I am going to structure how I write this mock a bit differently. You will see what I mean when you start reading, but I just think the change in format makes it a little more interesting both to read and to write.

1 — Cincinnati Bengals

Come on now. Everyone knows who the projection is here. So, instead of explaining why I think this pick will happen, I am going to brag. Ever since the first Saturday of September 2019, after beating then-ranked Texas, I said Joe Burrow was my top quarterback in the class. This is a classic example of my “pundit” strategy: very quietly make bold claims about players, and then loudly point out my claims when they turn out to be true (and when they don’t, I shut up and hope nobody noticed).

That being said, Burrow is far and away the best quarterback prospect in this year’s class. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller said he is the quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. Not only do I agree with this claim, I think Luck is the perfect comparison to Burrow. While Luck had a stronger arm as a prospect, his arm strength decreased as a pro due to constant injuries, making them almost identical players. Both have elite pocket presence, are deadly on intermediate throws, and have exceptional playmaking ability. Playmaking ability when plays go to shit is what makes elite quarterbacks elite. Burrow had a BETTER passer rating against pressure than against a clean pocket. What that tells me is that LSU’s once in a generation, record-breaking offense, was too conservative and could have been even better.

(Side note, if you want to watch an amazing video about Burrow’s playmaking ability, search “Kollmann Burrow” on YouTube, and then watch the rest of Brett Kollmann’s videos because they are fantastic)

While I am absolutely terrified the Bengals will waste a generational talent the same way the Colts did with Luck, by not providing offensive line help until it was too late, that’s in no way a knock on Burrow. He had one of the greatest college seasons of all time, and in no world should the Bengals consider choosing anyone else with their reward for “winning” Tank Bowl IX.

Pick: Joe Burrow, QB, Louisiana State

2 — Washington

Just like the first pick, there is an obvious choice for Washington here. Unlike with the Bengals, however, I am more in favor of the potential alternative, if not entirely. Here’s the scoop: Washington still has holes at almost every positional group. The best way to fill these holes is by loading up on draft assets, but Washington does not have their second-round pick this year.

Someone is almost assuredly going to try and trade up for Tua Tagovailoa. A team like Miami, who has six top 100 picks, could absolutely be looking to jump to number two, as they would want to leapfrog anyone trying to trade to number three with Detroit. For equal trade value, Washington could get picks 5, 26, and 70 for the second pick, and if Miami is desperate enough, they could also get a future second or third. Falling back to five, taking the best player available who would be guaranteed to fill a need because every position save for defensive tackle is a need for Washington, and adding two more top 100 picks this year could be very appealing. If I was the GM and I received this trade offer, especially with the future pick, I’d be struggling to decline it.

However, since this mock does not have trades, I’m going to go with the obvious choice I mentioned in the first paragraph. Chase Young is an elite, blue-chip prospect. There really is not anything I could say about his technical game that other people haven’t already. He’s also a better prospect than both of his former schoolmates, the Bosa brothers, who have already made immediate impacts in the NFL.

Washington already has a promising defensive line core of Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, Da’Ron Payne, and Matt Ionnaidas (the only non-first rounder and arguably the best of the group). Adding a true franchise edge rusher could make this group have a similar impact that San Francisco’s defensive line had this last season. Now, Washington has too many holes to make a similar jump as the Niners’ second-worst to second-best performance from this past season. However, that line would give this team an elite position group, and maybe in three years, it could carry them to playoff contention.

Pick: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State

3 — Detroit Lions

There are a lot of hot takes circling that the Lions could be looking to replace Matt Stafford with Tua Tagovailoa. That would be a colossal mistake. Stafford was a top ten quarterback, arguably top five, before his injury in 2019. Considering how quarterback contracts have inflated as well as the fact that the salary cap is set to greatly increase after next season, Stafford’s 27 million average annual salary seems like a steal.

So, the question becomes which blue-chip defender to take at this spot. The Lions, even at 3–3–1, were fighting for a playoff spot before Stafford got hurt. In fact, the Lions much more resemble the aforementioned 2018 49ers, and honestly are rather lucky to get a premiere prospect with as good of a roster as they have.

After running cornerback Darius Slay out of town, the Lions should select Jeff Okudah to replace Slay’s lockdown ability. Like Young, there is not much more to be said Okudah’s game; he’s easily the best corner prospect since Jalen Ramsey. While many pundits say the draft starts at pick three, I think unless Detroit trades back, this pick is just as obvious as the first two.

Pick: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State

4 — New York Giants

For the second pick in a row, it pains me not to be mocking Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons. While Simmons genuinely has one of the highest potentials in the draft class, he does not offer much in terms of positional value. And again for the second pick in a row, there is an elite prospect at a glaring position of need for the selecting team.

While people talk plenty about Burrow, Young, and Okudah as elite, blue-chip prospects at their positions, Jedrick Wills does not receive as much of said talk, and really should. While Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs stole the show and the national narrative with his combine performance, a review of Wills’ tape shows that he is clearly the better prospect. Wills is so fundamentally sound and does not get beat in pass rush by defenders exploiting technical flaws as Wirfs does, which college players could not always take advantage of, but NFL defenders surely will. At the same time, while Wills does not have the same agility and mobility as Wirfs, his strength gives him an equally high athletic potential.

Daniel Jones’ pocket presence is beyond atrocious. If he is going to be New York’s franchise quarterback, he needs an elite offensive line so that he can sit in the pocket for four or more seconds to find a receiver with his admittedly good accuracy. Wills has the best combination of floor and ceiling of any offensive line prospect in the draft, which makes him well worth a top-five pick and almost guarantees him to stick at tackle in the NFL. While I love Simmons, having a franchise quarterback is more important than anything else, and Wills could allow that to happen for New York.

Pick: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

5 — Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have been linked to almost every 2020 quarterback prospect EXCEPT Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. That said, he’s the only quarterback I would feel comfortable as a GM risking my job to select at this point in the draft.

While Tua’s injury history combined with Miami’s awful offensive line could be a recipe for a disaster, he does not have to play this season, as Ryan Fitzpatrick (who was 8th in QBR in 2019) is a more than capable bridge quarterback. Also, the Dolphins have five more top 100 picks to more than thoroughly address the offensive line.

Tagovailoa, however, showed all the traits of a franchise quarterback during his college career. He is just a step behind Burrow in terms of accuracy and playmaking ability, and he is ahead in terms of mobility, which has proven so important in the modern NFL. While a redshirt season is necessary due to his injury, Miami’s line, and the fact that he was surrounded by so much talent at Alabama (he had a receiving core in college better than a third of NFL teams, and that’s not a joke). But the potential and the ability is present without question.

Pick: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

6 — Los Angeles Chargers

As mentioned earlier, what I would do is heavily influencing these mocked picks. However, I also promised to be realistic about where players are going to be selected in this upcoming draft. And as far as quarterback needs, the only teams that could draft a guy like Justin Herbert are in the top ten or were playoff teams; no one 10–20, where I would value Herbert, really makes sense as a quarterback destination at this point.

It’s clear the Chargers need a quarterback. Tyrod Taylor is serviceable, but there is no one on the Chargers roster that could be even considered a potential franchise quarterback (sorry, Owen). So, Herbert is the pick here.

Let me be clear: I don’t like Justin Herbert. For as much arm talent as he has, he really struggles with is accuracy way too much to be comfortable, and quarterbacks don’t get more accurate when they go to the NFL (no, Josh Allen is not a counterexample, shut up). Furthermore, he really struggles going to his second read, and the only time he showed the ability to elevate the play of his team was the (admittedly very impressive) Rose Bowl.

Herbert reminds me a lot of recently departed Phillip Rivers, who took all of the kidz from San Diego to Indianapolis, a decision I am sure they are very happy about. If there is any team I’d feel comfortable taking a player with arm talent but questionable accuracy and decision making, it would be the Chargers.

7 — Carolina Panthers

This offseason, we learned of another elite linebacker retiring early to save his own health. Let me be clear: Luke Kuechly cannot be replaced. Especially because Isaiah Simmons doesn’t even fit as a middle linebacker like Kuechly did. If anything, that would be a misuse of Simmons and a waste of his ability. This draft class is remarkably stacked at the top in terms of elite talent. Almost any other year, Simmons would be a top-five lock.

People have struggled to find a pro comparison for Olathe, Kansas prodigal son. Just in terms of playstyle, and not physicals (as Simmons is about 50 pounds heavier), he is closest to Kansas City’s Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu is technically a safety but most often lines up as slot cornerback; he’s utilized all over the field in zone, man, and blitz, which is exactly the way an NFL team should use him. Limiting Simmons to one position would be the worst thing you could do as a coach. Let him roam the field and make plays; it's really that simple. He isn’t a linebacker, or a safety, or a cornerback. Isaiah Simmons is a defender, and he has the highest potential of any player in this class.

That being said, Carolina has needs on the defensive and offensive lines. While I as a GM would not hesitate to make Simmons the selection here, both of the upcoming mocked picks could just as easily be selected by Carolina come April 23rd.

Pick: Isaiah Simmons, DEFENSE, Clemson

8 — Arizona Cardinals

Rumors have it that the Cardinals love Simmons, which I would fully endorse if he were to fall here to eight. Furthermore, I am so, so, so tempted to give Kyler Murray his favorite receiver from college to form a disgusting duo of Deandre Hopkins and Ceedee Lamb.

However, there are two simple rules of teambuilding that NFL teams must follow for success. They are 1) get a franchise quarterback; 2) protect your franchise quarterback. Arizona made a bold selection by taking Murray one year after taking Josh Rosen, but it has clearly been the right choice. Murray was rookie of the year, and Rosen couldn’t crack the field for a tanking Dolphins team. So, the selection here should be Tristan Wirfs.

While I do have concerns about how he got beat by technically sound EDGEs in college, Wirfs has such elite athletic potential that its an easy choice. I wouldn't be surprised if Wirfs ends up drafted before Jedrick Wills (which would be a mistake). Even if Wirfs isn’t ready to play tackle his first year, he could start at guard while DJ Humphries and Marcus Gilbert hold down the edge. If he is ready, Humphries could slide to guard instead. Wirfs gives Arizona so much flexibility on the offensive line, which gives Kyler the best chance possible to become the third straight second year MVP quarterback.

Pick: Tristain Wirfs, OT, Iowa

9 — Jacksonville Jaguars

Sacksonville has been completely dismantled. The only members of that vaunted Jaguars defense remaining are Myles Jack and (although probably not for long) Yannick Ngakoue. However, when they absolutely stole Josh Allen last draft, they started building the next iteration, and this pick will continue that construction.

I’m not the biggest fan of Derrick Brown. He reminds me too much of Vita Vea, who offers elite run-stopping ability but not much in the passing game. However, even with only 4 sacks, Brown greatly improved his pass rush ability. He is unworldly quick for a 350-pound lineman, and he can bend around the edge (!!!) of offensive linemen. If he develops a reliable pass rush move, he will not only be a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks, but he will eat double teams and allow his future teammates, Allen and former first-round pick Taven Bryan to also reach the next level of production.

Pick: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

10 — Cleveland Browns

Cleveland’s problems were very easy to spot in 2019: the offensive line was awful (rule #2). To avoid completely ruining Baker Mayfield, they acquired right tackle Jack Conklin, but left tackle is still a hole. They get so lucky that, in this mock, the most NFL ready, plug-and-play, left tackle falls into their laps at pick ten.

Andrew Thomas has gotten a lot of undeserved heat this draft cycle, largely because he started the season a top three projected player and is now around #10. However, that is more a symptom of a lot of players rising than of Thomas falling. Admittedly, he does not have the ceiling of a Wirfs or a Wills. But for a team like Cleveland, they are not looking for a potential franchise player to begin building their line. They are looking for the last piece of the puzzle so that Baker Mayfield has all the time he needs to potentially lead this very talented offense to the playoffs. Andrew Thomas is that exact piece and a perfect fit.

Pick: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

11 — New York Jets

This pick has been one of the most challenging to project so far. The Jets have two huge needs at edge rusher and offensive line, and there are two players on the board here that fit the value. However, both players have more potential than production, leading to a much higher bust ratio.

The only thing left I have to make this selection is information about what the Jets have done so far this offseason, and what they have done so far is acquire offensive linemen, four to be specific. Of course, none of these four players are impact starters. But what these moves indicate to me is that the Jets want to shore up the offensive line in the short term because they believe they won’t be able to address the position here at pick 11. Now, they could easily trade up or reach for another lineman here and go all-in on fixing a position group that has been absolutely atrocious, a strategy I could get behind. However, to me, these indications say they will go with the pass rusher.

LSU pass rushers are something of an enigma. There have been several notable names who came out of the school with very projectable athletic profiles, but mediocre to underwhelming sack production. One player, Barkevious Mingo was a top ten bust. Another, Danielle Hunter, has become one of the best pass rushers in the league. And K’Lavon Chaisson fits this exact stereotype.

Now, all this talk about unpredictability would make one think I am uncomfortable taking Chaisson here, but that is simply not the case. His bend and explosiveness off the edge, which are the most important physical traits for a pass rusher, is simply unmatched in this class. And there are two plausible explanations for the lack of production: first, he played less than 30 games in college. He’s inexperienced with the technicalities of being a pass rusher. Second, he played a hybrid edge/off-ball linebacker position, so he wasn’t always rushing the passer. He was utilized more in the run game at LSU, at which he showed great proficiency. His ability to read the nuances of rush defense makes it very safe to assume with more experience, he will also develop the nuances of pass rushing.

The right coach could easily turn his athletic profile into a nightmare for opposing tackles. Now, does Adam Gase’s staff’s player development skill inspire me? No, but if I were GM of the Jets then Adam Gase would not be the coach. Chaisson has sky-high potential, and there are more indicators than usual for players of this archetype that he will be able to reach it. Not getting a tackle early hurts the Jets, but having Chaisson off the edge for the next decade should take away some of the sting.

Pick: K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, Louisiana State

12 — Las Vegas Raiders

I hate this. I really, really hate this. I hate that, in possibly the greatest wide receiver class of our lifetimes, not one, not two but three premiere receiver talents fall right into the laps of my Chiefs’ divisional rival. The Raiders have their pick of the litter of three very different players who all have impact potential at the next level.

CeeDee Lamb is an odd archetype of a player who has good, not elite speed, but makes plays with his feet after the catch. There is some concern that Lamb’s receiver skills are not as developed, but that concern is not as prevalent in me. Lamb was an absolute game-wrecker during college, as he could score from any spot on the field. As long as his route running skills come along, which weren’t challenged against Big 12 cornerbacks, this playmaking ability will transfer nicely to the professional league. His player comp is DeAndre Hopkins. That alone should be enough.

As far as why Vegas would take Lamb over the other two top receivers, I am mostly basing this on a gut feeling. There has been a lot of smoke about the team being interested, and while buzz isn’t all too reliable at this point in the draft process, I have a feeling that this is legit. The Raiders will fall in love with his potential and gamebreaking ability, and make him the top receiver taken in a potentially historic class.

Pick: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

13 — San Francisco 49ers (from IND)

San Francisco traded one of the best interior pass rushers in football for the luxury of selecting here. Now, in a vacuum, Deforest Bucker for pick thirteen seems like a fair trade, and in the real world, San Fran couldn’t pay all of their defensive linemen. However, I think the contract given to Dee Ford was a mistake. I value interior pass rush just as much if not more than edge rush, and there’s no question Buckner is the superior player. If you asked me if I’d rather have Buckner and a second this year versus Ford and pick 13, it’d be challenging to choose the latter.

However, the player available here for the Niners makes all of those concerns almost vanish. It seems to be a popular move for draft pundits to be low on Jerry Jeudy, and I suppose I am doing the same, as pick 13 seems way too low for his skills. Jeudy’s player profile is not complicated: he’s an elite route runner. If you are exceptional at getting open in the NFL, a lot of other concerns do not matter as much (not that Jeudy has shown any reason to be concerned about his other receiver skills).

The Niners need another weapon after losing Emmanuel Sanders to New Orleans. Jeudy is a player who will be able to get open against NFL defenses from day one, which makes him have a high floor and a high ceiling. A lot of people are overthinking Jerry Jeudy; for their sake, hopefully the 49ers aren’t doing the same.

Pick: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

14 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Touchdown Tom is going to Tampa. In a weird way, the situation with his new team is almost exactly opposite to his former one. The Patriots had an elite defense, a premiere offensive line, and no weapons in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Bucs have a suspect defense, a bad offensive line, and one of the top groups of pass catchers in the entire league.

Acquiring Tom Brady is a win-now move for Tampa, as they clearly think they were just a quarterback away from contention (call me skeptical). There is absolutely no justification for the Buccaneers to take a quarterback here. Instead, they are going to get the goat some help, and clearly the biggest issue is the offensive line. Tom Brady could be ok without an elite defense; Tom Brady is no way could be ok without a good offensive line.

Mekhi Becton is one of the scariest players in the draft class, and I don’t mean that as far as bust potential. Imagine a 350-pound man running at you with 4.85 40 speed. I believe it was Matt Miller who said: “If he gets his hands on you, it’s over.” However, he’s still not great at getting his hands on pass rushers. Becton absolutely needs refinement in technical skills to be a good NFL player. He has great potential, but he also has very high bust potential. However, Tom Brady is absolutely screwed with Tampa’s current situation at offensive line, and the Bucs are not going to find a better fit in this class than with this player at this pick.

Pick: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

15 — Denver Broncos

Adding insult to injury. Not one but TWO of my team’s division rivals get elite pass catchers in the top half of round one while my team has maybe two cornerbacks on roster? The Broncos believe in Drew Lock, and for good reason. He was one of the most impressive rookie quarterbacks this past season, and so now its time to get him some help. With all four of the top tackles off the board, the most immediate help is going to come at wide receiver.

Courtland Sutton had a breakout season in 2019 as a big-body possession receiver. Adding an elite deep threat would be the perfect compliment to Sutton, and that’s exactly what Henry Ruggs III is. 4.27 speed speaks for itself. I know there is a lot of concern, and there are a lot of comparisons of Ruggs and top-ten bust John Ross swirling. However, Ruggs is already a much more refined route runner and has better YAC skills than Ross did as a prospect. He is a multidimensional deep threat who is dangerous for reasons beyond just his speed. I would be very unhappy if Denver were to pick up Ruggs, which probably means it’d be a great pick.

After his obsession with tall, white quarterbacks finally paid off, John Elway has been making some very good picks under the radar. I do not like this.

Pick: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

16 — Atlanta Falcons

After letting go of former first-round pick Vic Beasley, the Falcons need a pass rusher, plain and simple. And while Beasley played end, Atlanta has holes both on the outside and in the inside. As I mentioned earlier, I believe interior rush is equally as valuable and more devastating for opposing quarterbacks (as they cannot climb in the pocket). I’m not going to waste any time with this one: Atlanta is going to take an interior pass rusher here.

Javon Kinlaw is one of my favorite prospects in this draft. Not only does he have an incredible life story, but he compares to one of my favorite players in the entire league, Chris Jones. Jones has never been even an average run stopper in the NFL, but his pass rush is so devastating that absolutely no one cares that he can’t stop the run. Kinlaw has the exact same issues and the exact same potential as a pass rusher. I think a lot of teams are going to overthink this prospect, but to me, it’s really not that hard. Kinlaw going to struggle against the run, and that’s okay, because he’s going to blow shit up as a pass rusher. Grady Jarrett finally gets a counterpart who should immediately turn Atlanta’s front four into a formidable unit once again.

Pick: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

So I’m only halfway through this mock, and yet I’m already approaching eight pages on Microsoft Word. So, this is going to be a two-parter. However, part 2 (picks 17–32) is already written and will be coming out exactly 24 hours from now. If anyone actually reads all eight pages of this, you have my undying appreciation and respect.