2019 NFL Mock Draft v 2.0: Super Bowl Edition
Remember last time when I absolutely trashed people who write mock drafts without trades?
Yeah, so this mock draft is not going to have any trades.
Why? Because I don’t want to. In short, I just finished a week with three midterms on the same day, so I am really just writing this mock for my own entertainment/stress relief, and so any utility that you the reader receive from this story is purely extra. I also just finished watching that unbelievably boring Super Bowl, and so I am sure you can understand my desire to move onto the next season of football as quickly as possible.
The analysis will not be nearly as detailed as my last mock, as I hope to write a complete first-round mock this time. And with how this board is going to play out, it would definitely be disingenuous to call this mock 1.1 or something like that. This is going to be different. You’ve been warned.
- Arizona Cardinals: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
So yeah. This is not Nick Bosa. The main reason for this selection is that Arizona is transitioning to a 3–4, where Allen is a much more natural fit and where Bosa does not really have a positional fit. Allen has the production to be in the number one overall conversation, and if he has an impressive combine/pro day to back up his stats, then seeing him pair up with Chandler Jones would not surprise me in the slightest.
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
A lot of recent mocks have Bosa number one and Allen number two. I think regardless, San Francisco would be happy with whichever pass rusher the Cardinals do not take at number one. The fact that Bosa is a better fit for Kyle Shanahan’s 4–3 is just bonus at this point.
3. New York Jets: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
In the NFL, you are supposed to go with the best player available instead of need. But Jonah Williams is not much worse than his Alabama teammate also named Williams. To succeed as a franchise, the Jets need Sam Darnold to be their franchise quarterback. And Darnold cannot do that with the current offensive line in New York. Jonah Williams can from day one be the franchise tackle that Darnold absolutely needs.
4. (Oakland?) Raiders: Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan
To be completely honest, I am not the biggest fan of Rashan Gary. Everyone talks about how his pure athleticism is more important than his production, but even freak athletes like Myles Garret and Khalil Mack had double-digit production in college. Four sacks for Gary is concerning. So, now you might be asking, are you just mocking him to Oakland because you are a Chiefs fan and want this pick to bust? No, because I actually do think that Oakland would pull the trigger on a guy like Gary. They always love the athletic freaks in Oakland, especially guys like Obi Melifonwu, Khalil Mack, Karl Joseph, and Amari Cooper. I think Jon Gruden is so desperate to improve his pass rush at the moment that he will focus on Gary’s upside, which even I cannot deny exists.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
Just saw a report on Twitter that Tampa is likely to move on from Gerald McCoy this offseason, and so my analysis from last time still holds. A quick summary: cutting McCoy saves a lot of money, Williams is by far the best player available, and him + Vita Vea is very scary for the rest of the NFC South.
6. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
I am probably higher on Haskins than most this year. I think his arm strength and accuracy are both very good, and his decision making will benefit from sitting behind Eli Manning for a year, which is also why I am not worried at all about his inconsistency from this past year. A lot of people criticized the Giants for taking Saquon Barkley over Sam Darnod, but I am much higher on Haskins than I was on Darnold, so I think in the long run the Giants will have few regrets.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
I debated a lot about whether Jacksonville would draft a quarterback or not. Ultimately, I decided that Jacksonville probably thinks they are a quarterback away from contending in the AFC. They can free up over $21 million by cutting Marcel Darius and Malik Jackson, and with the money they are paying Blake Bortles, I doubt they want to add another massive quarterback contract. At the Senior Bowl, I thought Drew Lock looked more impressive than Jones, but in the end, Lock needs a redshirt year while Jones can play week one, which is ultimately more valuable to Jacksonville.
8. Detroit Lions: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
I think Williams’ LSU teammate Devin White would be a really nice fit here considering how awful Detroit’s linebackers were this season. However, they also need a partner for Darius Slay, and in the modern NFL, especially when you have to play Aaron Rodgers twice a year, a stud cornerback is going to make a bigger difference than a stud linebacker.
9. Buffalo Bills: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
Ed Oliver is another one of those players with insane athleticism and sub-par production, especially coming from the American Conference. However, what impressed me and somewhat quelled my worries was how strongly he finished the season after a good deal of adversity: he had three sacks in his last three games at Houston. That production is not quite enough for me to put him back into the conversation for a top five pick, but here at nine, Buffalo would be very happy with the athletic freak to replace Kyle Williams. Buffalo’s defense was one of the bright spots of their 2018 season, and having a lot of talent around Oliver will help him significantly.
10. Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
For the record, this is not my prediction. This prediction belongs to Benjamin Allbright, a Broncos reporter whom I trust more than anyone about quarterbacks. If you need more proof, check out this thread; the quarterback comparisons in here are scary accurate (especially Mahomes, Watson, and Mayfield)
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-lang=”en”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Prospect to prospect comparisons:<br><br>Watson: Alex Smith<br>Kizer: EJ Manuel<br>Mahomes: Brett Favre<br>Trubisky: Andy Dalton</p>— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) <a href=”https://twitter.com/AllbrightNFL/status/853697299268108288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 16, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset=”utf-8"></script>
That being said, I also agree that Drew Lock is a good fit for Denver. Lock, like Mahomes (who is really a bad comparison; all the two have in similar is a big arm and what I’m about to say) needs a redshirt year, and Case Keenum is pretty much a perfect bridge quarterback. After taking Bradley Chubb last year, if the Broncos get Lock, I will have to begrudgingly admit that this franchise is headed in the right direction.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin White, LB, LSU
Devin White is better than the 11th prospect in this draft, but unfortunately in the modern NFL off-ball linebackers are losing value. That being said, they are still important (see: Chiefs, Kansas City if you need more proof that your defense needs good linebackers), and Cincinnati has a huge hole here, considering that Vontaze Burfict’s career might be over. I love their defensive line, and they got my favorite prospect in the draft last year in Jesse Bates at safety. With White anchoring the middle, Cincinnati will have a very impressive up-and-coming defense next year.
12. Green Bay Packers: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
I do not think that Brian Burns is the best edge rusher on the board here at 12. That being said, Clelin Ferrell, whom overall I like more than Burns, is probably too big to play in Green Bay’s 3–4 at 265 pounds. One of the biggest knocks against Burns was his size (239 lbs), and so I think a transition from a 4–3 end to a 3–4 linebacker would make a lot of sense as long as Burns isn’t completely useless in coverage. If he can make the transition, I think he’s a perfect fit here at 12 for Green Bay to replace Clay Matthews.
NOTE: from here on out, the descriptions will probably become shorter as I’ve spent most of my time so far this draft season looking at top 10 prospects and teams.
13. Miami Dolphins: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
Speak of the devil, Ferrell gets drafted right after I mentioned him. Miami has a lot of defensive line talent on their roster, but Cameron Wake is not getting any younger, and William Hayes is coming off of a season-ending knee injury. Ferrell is someone who really impressed me on film, and while Miami could go with an interior player like one of Ferrell’s teammates in Christian Wilkins or Dexter Lawrence, pass rushers are more important in today’s league than interior run-stoppers.
14. Atlanta Falcons: Jeffrey Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
Atlanta needs an interior defensive lineman either to pair next to Grady Jarrett or replace him, if Jarrett leaves Atlanta during free agency. Simmons is more of a pass rusher than any of the other defensive lineman on the board, and so he is Atlanta’s pick here at 14.
15. Washington: Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson
Yeah, I’m not going to refer to this team by its nickname. I do not think this needs much explanation.
Anyway, back to football. Washington has a pretty damn good roster. But, with Alex Smith injured, they absolutely need a quarterback. That being said, I do not see them pulling the trigger on Kyler Murray here. If Smith does not return for 2019, then they should tank and get a quarterback in next year’s loaded class. Besides quarterback, their biggest needs are probably interior line and cornerback. I think Trayvon Mullen is going to end up running around a 4.35 40 at the combine and experience a Denzel Ward-like rise up big boards and end up being the second corner off the board.
16. Carolina Panthers: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama
Carolina needs a safety. Eric Reid is a free agent after this season and Mike Adams is almost 40. Thompson isn’t as good as Derwin James, who went around this pick last year, but he is a similar playmaking safety, and he had a stellar season at Alabama. If Clelin Ferrell does not go earlier, I think 16 is the latest he could be drafted.
17. Cleveland Browns: Cody Ford, OT, Oklahoma
One of my proudest predictions was saying that Baker Mayfield would go number one overall sometime in February last year before the analysts were saying so. Cleveland made the absolute right choice and now have a very solid roster. Their biggest needs are wide receiver and tackle, and without wideout value here at 17, Cleveland gets Cody Ford, one of the fastest risers during the College Football Playoff. He will fill one of the few weak spots on Cleveland’s offensive line.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State
Risner made himself quite a bit of money by completely shutting down Montez Sweat at the Senior Bowl. He has a good deal of flexibility, which is good for Minnesota because they have holes everywhere on their offensive line.
19. Tennessee Titans: Christian Wilkins
It was a debate between two Clemson teammates here at 19. Besides Jurell Casey, Tennessee has very little talent in the defensive interior, and so they could use an upgrade at either 1-tech (Dexter Lawrence) or 3-tech (Wilkins). Ultimately, I went with Wilkins here because he has higher pass rush potential than Lawrence.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
Pittsburgh’s secondary was atrocious this year. Artie Burns was not good, and Joe Haden is not getting any younger. Murphy is an excellent man defender out of Washington, which is quickly becoming an underrated DBU with guys like Budda Baker, Murphy, and to a lesser extent, Marcus Peters.
21. Seattle Seahawks: Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida
Seattle needs help both inside and outside on its defensive line. Of the prospects at either position, Polite is probably the best available. Polite had a very productive year at Florida, which bumped him into the first round. At this point, I believe that Seattle refuses to ever take an offensive lineman in the first round, and so until they actually do, I will stop mocking them lineman year after year only to be proven wrong on draft night.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
I was about to mock a receiver to Baltimore. After all, Lamar Jackson absolutely needs help at that position (if they do go wide receiver here, it should be DK Metcalf instead of N’Keal Harry or Kelvin Harmon because, with a quarterback like Jackson, getting separation is more important than making contested catches). However, if Baltimore is really going to buy into this ground-pound offense, a power back like Josh Jacobs is a perfect fit. He is a clear upgrade over Gus Edwards, and there is almost always more value taking a receiver in the second round as opposed to the first.
23. Houston Texans: Yodney Cajuste, OT, West Virginia
Like Minnesota five picks earlier, the Texans just need offensive line help. Cajuste is more technically sound than athletically gifted, and might be overall the best pass-blocker out of him, Cody Ford, and Dalton Risner. I think all Texans fans would be thrilled to have him fall into their laps here at 23.
24. Oakland Raiders (from CHI): Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss
Oakland’s tackles were just awful. Kolton Miller still might have a future on this team, but the other tackle spot is still a big need. Greg Little has fallen down the boards this season, but I still believe he is a first-round talent. He is more athletic and less technically sound than the three tackles who went before him, but with a little coaching, he could very well turn out just like the last five-star tackle out of Ole Miss to be drafted in the first round.
25. Philadelphia Eagles: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
This draft class is actually fairly deep at offensive line, especially near the top. Philadelphia needs to replace future Hall-of-Famer Jason Peters, which is quite convenient because Taylor plays a lot like Peters. Keeping Carson Wentz healthy is a must for the Eagles next season.
26. Indianapolis Colts: DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
TY Hilton has needed a partner for years now. DK Metcalf has both the size and the separation ability to be a true number one receiver in this league. Indy has a absolutely insane amount of cap space which I suspect they will use on the defensive side of the ball in free agency, which is much more talented than the offensive class this year. Thus, in the draft, they prioritize WR2. Adding Metcalf to an offense with a healthy Andrew Luck, TY Hilton, Eric Ebron, Marlon Mack and that scary offensive line would put Indianapolis in the conversation with Kansas City for best offense in the AFC.
27. Oakland Raiders (from DAL): Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama
The Raiders have had a need at off-ball linebacker for as long as I have been following the NFL draft. Wilson is very solid both as a run stopper and in coverage, thus making him the target for Oakland here with the Dallas pick.
28. Los Angeles Chargers: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
The Chargers’ only real hole on defense is next to Corey Liuget on the interior defensive line. In many years, Lawrence would have been a top-15 pick due to his elite run-stopping ability, and so for the second straight year the Chargers get great value on the defensive side. Lawrence’s limited upside as a pass rusher will be less noticeable on a line with Joey Bosa, Liuget, and Melvin Ingram, and his size will absolutely help out those other pass rushers.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
Did I make decisions earlier in the draft so that one of my favorite players (whose jersey I will buy instantly if the Chiefs draft him) in this year’s class would fall to my Chiefs in a mock without trades? … no comment. However, I do truly think that Trayvon Mullen will be a combine phenom and rise above at least Baker and probably also Murphy. Even if Baker probably won’t fall to 29, the Chiefs have two second round picks, and so seeing them trade up to around the 20th pick would not surprise me at all.
Baker reminds me a lot of Marcus Peters. I know that might scare some Chiefs fans, but I say that in the best way possible. Both players lack elite speed and can be beat deep or when chasing guys across the middle. However, Baker also has the elite press ability and ball skills to completely lock down one side of the field on almost every play, constantly cutting down the options for opposing quarterbacks, which is is exactly how Marcus Peters found success in Kansas City.
30. Green Bay Packers (from NO): Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware
This pick makes me a little sad because I would love to see Adderley in Kansas City. After trading away the best name in the NFL in Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Green Bay needs help at safety, and Adderley has the combination of coverage skills and hard-hitting mentality that makes Earl Thomas an elite safety.
31. Los Angeles Rams: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
With Dante Fowler likely leaving in the offseason, the Rams need to get some more edge rushing talent. Interior offensive line is also a need seeing how they got absolutely dominated by New England in the Super Bowl, but I do not see the value at that position here in the first round.
32. New England Patriots: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Boston sports fans are the most spoiled people on the planet. After the game, I wasn’t even mad. At this point, seeing Boston teams win the championship is the norm. Now, they are going to continue to be spoiled by having the pick of the litter of this absolutely stacked tight end class after Rob Gronkowski likely retires. Guys like Irv Smith Jr and Isaac Nauta could also be in the conversation here, but at the moment, Fant is the unquestionable top talent at tight end in 2019. And, stop mocking quarterbacks round one to New England. Having a starting quarterback on a rookie deal makes a huge difference for teams to have monetary flexibility, and so the Patriots aren’t going to draft a quarterback if Tom Brady is going to play for another three years.
Thus concludes my first full mock of the 2019 draft season. I need to spend a good deal of time learning about late first-round teams and prospects, so do not expect another mock until after the combine in March.
That being said, thank you so much for reading. It really meant a lot to me to see all the support my first article got on Twitter. Seeing other people enjoy hearing me talk about what I am passionate about is truly special.
